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#1
10-23-2004, 05:30 PM
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Betting the presidential election
A look at four tracking polls gives Bush an average lead of 2.8%. He is -180 at CRIS.
Here are some wagering options. Bet Bush on the Iowa Electronic Markets. You have a choice of whether he gets more or less than 52% of the two-party vote. It's .307 over 52% and about .282 under 52%. Can Bush break away in the final days? I think he will win, but I think his limited schedule will keep Kerry in the game. So I will bet Bush under 52% and hedge with Kerry +150. The resaoning is that Kerry could win but lose the popular vote. While I think this theory may be bunk, it might just happen. Comments? 
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#2
10-24-2004, 12:11 PM
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Re: Betting the presidential election,
[img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img] i say watch key state polling of likely voters in key states i.e. ohio and fla if these are 3%+ for bush...then unload on electoral college for bush....
gl [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]
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#3
10-24-2004, 10:45 PM
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Re: Betting the presidential election
I think, even if you had a LOCK on this, that it would be unwise to tie up a lot of dough on this one.
Who is to say what the policy of any book would be, if say, the final determination isn't known until Jeb Bush dispatches an entirely impartial committee to recount (read: shred) the minority vote in certain counties? To put it another way, if the election is held up pending Supreme Court rulings which could take until January or later, I wouldn't tie up a large amount on this prop if I needed ANY of it any time soon. The Supreme Court angle is entirely within the realm of possiblity and wouldn't surprse me none. "Your excuses are your own" -- Richard Roma
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