open-ender...lotsa bets

[cold_cash]

Wild table.

SB is a little rockish but hasn't been here too long. He's at least way tighter than the other guys. He hasn't seemed overly aggressive.

The CO is pretty much a lagtard, bordering on maniac.

MP is one of the worst players I've ever seen. Loose, passive, calls down with nothing, etc.

UTG is also a LAG, but nowhere near as awesome as the CO.


Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is BB with J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG calls, MP calls, CO calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: (5 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, Hero calls, <font color="#CC3333">UTG raises</font>, MP folds, CO calls, SB calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (6.50 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, Hero calls, UTG calls, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB 3-bets</font>, Hero....?

I haven't done any math on this yet, (other than some rudimentary during the hand), I'm just throwing it out there.

[Entity]

I'd fold. I think you're drawing to a 3-out chop too often to continue.

I fold it here because...

1) If a Q come, it's highly I am looking at a split pot since any J gives someone a straight here. We can already be behind to QJ here and SB line suggest he may have that.

2) Let's say noone of them have the straight, how would you play the hand if the queen of diamond or 7 of diamond fell? I don't think one of them is on a flush draw considering their betting unless they have a pair of kings too.

3) The odds 6,25-1 don't justify a call here in my eyes, especially when some of the cards don't guarantee us the pot. I think we could be looking at a split if a Q comes and if the 7 comes, I would be worried about QJ from the SB.

[The Truth]

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I'd fold. I think you're drawing to a 3-out chop too often to continue.

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I'd fold. I think you're drawing to a 3-out chop too often to continue.

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[img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] You don't think the 7's are clean? or you put SB on QJ?

EDIT: It's a fold either way.

[jaxUp]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'd fold. I think you're drawing to a 3-out chop too often to continue.

[/ QUOTE ]

[img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] You don't think the 7's are clean? or you put SB on QJ?

EDIT: It's a fold either way.

[/ QUOTE ]

the 7's are clean but somebody has a hand like JT/ KJ too often here

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'd fold. I think you're drawing to a 3-out chop too often to continue.

[/ QUOTE ]

[img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] You don't think the 7's are clean? or you put SB on QJ?

EDIT: It's a fold either way.

[/ QUOTE ]

the 7's are clean but somebody has a hand like JT/ KJ too often here

[/ QUOTE ]

3 [7] outs
3 [Q] outs 66% of the time someone holds a J

66% drawing to half pot or 1.5 outs. = 1 out.
33% drawing to 3 outs. = 1 out.

Total 5 outs. 5 outs requires 7.4:1 pot odds.
Pot is offering 14:2 and with two lags you could probably make that up on the river.

You could add a little to your immediate odds for the other 7 and Q out as not always will someone hold a flush draw.
But you could take a little away for the times when more than one villian holds a J.

But what tips this to a fold for me is the SB rock 3betting the turn. The chance that he holds QJ already is greatly increased.

+ I don't trust myself to fold for multiple bets if the Q or 7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] was to fall.


It's a little closer than I first thought.

You could do some more complicated maths about frequency of holdings etc etc etc. but we all agree anyway.

Fold.

I would have probably dumped it on the first bet on the turn with the agression behind you. The raises behind suggest you could be drawing dead to someone with QJ. Not to mention that 2 of your outs (7d and Qd) are dirty. Getting 7.5 to 1 is more than enough to play, even with 6 outs, but do you really feel comfortable if the Q hits?

As far as math is concerned, it is about 6 to 1 back to you, but again, I only feel comfortable if the non diamond 7's come out. Discounting my outs to about 5-6, I fold this hand.