(55) bluff this river?

[schwza]

i very rarely do this, but it seemed like a good spot for it. villain limped J8o on the button with 1 limper in during the 10/15 level and i haven't noticed anything else about him.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t30 (10 handed) converter

BB (t881)
UTG (t1435)
UTG+1 (t1374)
UTG+2 (t970)
Hero (t890)
MP2 (t890)
MP3 (t1000)
CO (t975)
Button (t525)
SB (t1060)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t90</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, Button calls t90, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, BB calls t60.

Flop: (t285) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets t190</font>, Button folds, BB calls t190.

Turn: (t665) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, Hero checks.

River: (t665) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets t610 (All-In)</font>,

[otctrader]

Tough one; his preflop call is likely either some broadway combo or low-mid pair. Flop action unfortunately doesn't tell me much - it looks like a WA/WB situation, but since he checked the river, I'd be shocked if he checked a set and/or broadway straight to you, so I'd rule those hands out.

Given that, I'd guess he's putting you on a whiffed AK and calling the flop with some broadway Jx, maybe mid-pair. If I were in his shoes, I'd call that into question after you check the drawish turn, and be tempted to pick off a bluff here because I'm not sure what you're trying to represent with the river push.

Being that you checked the turn (which is fine), I think you have to check behind here since I'm not sure you'd ever fold out anything that beats you except for a very weak-tight jack.

[bigt439]

I don't think its a bad play really. Tough to say, but if I had a good feel for the hand I could definitely see making this play, but I agree plays like this present themselves rarely.

I wouldn't be raising 99 there and you can probably shrink your c-bet a bit to save some chips.

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think its a bad play really. Tough to say, but if I had a good feel for the hand I could definitely see making this play, but I agree plays like this present themselves rarely.

I wouldn't be raising 99 there and you can probably shrink your c-bet a bit to save some chips.

[/ QUOTE ]

interesting... strassa's been posting a lot about how everyone is making their cbets too small, even on relatively dry boards. i think it's mostly been mtt though, so maybe it doesn't carry over.

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]
If I were in his shoes, I'd call that into question after you check the drawish turn, and be tempted to pick off a bluff here because I'm not sure what you're trying to represent with the river push.


[/ QUOTE ]

what i'm trying to represent....

- hands that just got there: AQ/AT/A9/A8/QT
- hands that just improved: A7/A6/AJ
- hands that i was trapping with on the turn: KJ/JJ+/AK

now flip it around the other way. what hands are in my normal pre-flop raise range that can't beat, say, a weak J.

- 88-TT, 55, Q9. (and no, i'm not raising Q9 or 55 from there, and probably not 88 either)

i thought that villain would fold any Jx there, except maybe QJ.


of course, he insta-called with J4s. i guess that's what i get for ignoring the J8o limp.

[pooh74]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I don't think its a bad play really. Tough to say, but if I had a good feel for the hand I could definitely see making this play, but I agree plays like this present themselves rarely.

I wouldn't be raising 99 there and you can probably shrink your c-bet a bit to save some chips.

[/ QUOTE ]

interesting... strassa's been posting a lot about how everyone is making their cbets too small, even on relatively dry boards. i think it's mostly been mtt though, so maybe it doesn't carry over.

[/ QUOTE ]

Arguing about what a "standard" size of a cBet should be is ridiculous IMO. Mine are usually the same size of my flop bets where I consider myself ahead. That's the point...

If you are value betting 1/2 pot on a safe flop and CBetting on missed flops 1/2 pot on a similar non-draw flop then 1/2 pot is fine. The point is you are maximizing your gains and minimizing losses...Figuring out the best amount to optimize this depends on the board, # of opponents, reads on opponents etc...I don't think Strassa was advocating that cBets should be x amount.


Edit: as an example, on a board with a flush draw and straight draw possibilities, a cBet where you miss would need to be more perhaps (if you chose to make one here).

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]
Arguing about what a "standard" size of a cBet should be is ridiculous IMO. Mine are usually the same size of my flop bets where I consider myself ahead. That's the point...

[/ QUOTE ]

i was using "cbet" to mean a flop bet whether or not you hit - not sure if that's standard. and yes, also agree they should be the same size.

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think Strassa was advocating that cBets should be x amount.


[/ QUOTE ]

strassa had a couple of posts in short succession where someone would make a cbet (hit or miss) of around 2/3 pot on a board like J67r and he suggested to make it more like 3/4+ pot. i don't remember the exact details. not trying to cite his posts as some absolute authority that my bet size is right (or too small); i'm just saying it's interesting to hear both sides on an issue that doesn't get talked about very much.

[otctrader]

[ QUOTE ]
i thought that villain would fold any Jx there, except maybe QJ. of course, he insta-called with J4s. i guess that's what i get for ignoring the J8o limp.

[/ QUOTE ]

Bah, donks will be donks - note it and stack him next time; I think the only way you would get him off his J4 would be shoving the turn which I'd be leery of doing given he called a dry flop. If it was J4 of clubs (you didn't say), he's calling regardless.

As far as flop bet size goes, I think your'e fine - anything between 1/2 to 3/4 is standard here, doesn't give away your hand and leaves you room to play. He's calling a PSB with his "monster" anyway.

This bluff looks like bigtime -EV to me. If the river was a brick I like it better because there's a greater chance that a lower pair will call you but even then it's a bit dodgy. After that ace hits though I really like checking.

[bigt439]

[ QUOTE ]
This bluff looks like bigtime -EV to me. If the river was a brick I like it better because there's a greater chance that a lower pair will call you but even then it's a bit dodgy. After that ace hits though I really like checking.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is never a value bet no matter what the river