What is the Risk of Ruin in this scenario? (X-post)

[Reef]

Poker Pro who plays for a living and makes 4-5 BB/100 at NL400 6-max, 4 tabling mostly. Say he takes $10k and takes a shot at NL1000 6-max. He would first be single tabling and at most 2 tabling until he felt comfortable to move up. This person has played maybe 40 hours of NL600 and has dabbled in NL1000 before, but for less than 2k hands.

What is his risk of ruin? Assume he does not move down limits if his roll drops X%.

How about with a $15k roll?

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