Hand from 11s, do you fold this at the 11s??

[rydazzle]

(am I missing something? what happened to the converter?)

The more I think about this one, the more I wonder if this I can lay this down at the 11s...please let me know.


***** Hand History for Game 2349557761 *****
smallballs5 finished in ninth place.
15/30 Tourney Texas Hold'em Game Table (NL) (Tournament 13859320) - Mon Jul 11 23:49:37 EDT 2005
Table Table 11629 (Real Money) -- Seat 2 is the button
Total number of players : 8
Seat 2: button (980)
Seat 4: SB (285)
Seat 5: hero (800)
Seat 6: villian (1660)
Seat 7: UTG (750)
Seat 8: UTG+1 (755)
Seat 9: MP1 (1995)
Seat 10: MP2 (775)
SB posts small blind (10)
hero posts big blind (15)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to hero [ Td, Tc ]
villian calls (15)
UTG folds.
UTG+1 folds.
MP1 folds.
MP2 calls (15)
button folds.
SB calls (5)
hero checks.
** Dealing Flop ** : [ 4c, 7s, 8s ]
SB checks.
hero bets (45)
villian raises (200) to 200
MP2 folds.
SB folds.

(think...sigh...)

hero folds.

[lastchance]

No way I fold this at the $11's to some random 8, 99, and other stuff here.

3-bet this one, and overpush.

[45suited]

I wouldn't be happy about it, but I could fold it depending on my read of villain.

I know it's early, but how he doubled up would play a big part in my decision.

[rydazzle]

I had a tough time letting this go, obviously. I was thinking A-8 donk, or 77 set...later levels I push no question

[rydazzle]

he limped in with AA the first hand...

[Pete H]

I can't lay down that one at the 11's. Push.

[treeofwisdom7]

Lets see what villian might be thinking here. Villian limped EP so he might have KQs, or a bunch of low pp or maybe higher pp than yours. I cant see Villian raising flop with low pp if he didnt hit a set. Villian could be on a flush draw with two overs which makes his hand the favorite. [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img] He could have A9. A9 is the hand that you have to be putting villian on here to make a push. At best your a small favorite, why push? My pokerstove says 56% vs A9, KQ, 77, 99 AK, AQ, AJ, [img]/images/graemlins/mad.gif[/img]

[45suited]

[ QUOTE ]
My pokerstove says 56% vs A9, KQ, 77, 99 AK, AQ, AJ

[/ QUOTE ]

TT on a 4-7-8 flop? Unless you're saying all his high card hands are suited, you need to re-check your pokerstove:

On this flop, TT vs...

A9: ~5:1
KQ ~3:1
77 ~1:9
99 ~9:1
AK ~3:1
AQ ~3:1
AJ ~3:1

Huge favorite over this range. That said, you're either looking at junk like A8 (this is an 11) or two high spades or a set. Possible but unlikely is an overpair.

Against this level of competition, I think absent reads on an 11, you almost have to call. I just hate calling off all my chips in a spot like this when I know that my opponents suck so bad and I haven't raised pre-flop. But my guess is on the 11s, hero's hand is good at least 2/3 times here.

[tminus]

more often than not they are limping Ax and dont have a clue about position....but the game just started and TT is not something Im willing to battle with

on the other hand (and i hate to say this) but the rule of thumb: "dont assume a player is poor until he proves it" may not be applicable here

keep an eye on him and cop a resentment next time he slips up, then push and be called by a monster

[tigerite]

Also the rule of thumb "don't go broke in an unraised pot"