Rangers +225

[mikelow]

Too big to pass this one up. Yankees struggling, and I think the Rangers have a shot with rejuvenated Pedro Astacio.

Good luck!

[VinnyTheFish]

This is not a bad idea. I was considering fading the yankees every day this week.

But remember: Baseball is a game of averages. The Yanks will go on a big winning streak.

[MCS]

[ QUOTE ]
Baseball is a game of averages. The Yanks will go on a big winning streak.

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you claiming that their winning percentage in future games will be higher than it would have been if they'd started off the year winning most of their games?

Do you think that there is a fixed percentage which they can be expected to win and that they will now play out of their minds to "catch up"?

While I concede that games are not completely independent trials, your post seems a lot like saying, "Roulette is a game of averages. There have been eight blacks in a row, so there will be more reds than blacks in the future."

[VinnyTheFish]

[ QUOTE ]
Are you claiming that their winning percentage in future games will be higher than it would have been if they'd started off the year winning most of their games?


[/ QUOTE ]

I am just saying that there is a good chance that the Yanks will be above .500 in the near future. They are a better than .500 team. Therefore, I can say that, in my opinion, they will have a high winning percentage over a small sample in the near future.
[ QUOTE ]

Do you think that there is a fixed percentage which they can be expected to win and that they will now play out of their minds to "catch up"?

[/ QUOTE ]

No, but I would say that the Yanks should win 55-60 of thier 1st games. I would take that bet at 6-5.

[ QUOTE ]

While I concede that games are not completely independent trials, your post seems a lot like saying, "Roulette is a game of averages. There have been eight blacks in a row, so there will be more reds than blacks in the future."

[/ QUOTE ]

Very good point, but we are dealing with skilled players, not a call that has a 1 in 35 spot to stop on. But as we all say - "That is why they play the game."

[MCS]

[ QUOTE ]
I am just saying that there is a good chance that the Yanks will be above .500 in the near future. They are a better than .500 team. Therefore, I can say that, in my opinion, they will have a high winning percentage over a small sample in the near future.


[/ QUOTE ]

Okay, so you see my point re: roulette. Basically, I was saying that if their skill makes them a ".625 team" then I expect them to win at a .625 rate for the rest of the year, but not .675 to "catch back up."

I agree with you that they're a very good team and they will pick it up. I still think they'll win the division and the World Series.

That being said, and even though I also know nothing about betting baseball, and even though I've paid almost no attention to MLB so far this year, it seems like +225 is a lot. So the bet may be good anyway, since even if the Yankees win this game 65% of the time, then betting Texas is still profitable.