call or raise this river?

cfjr2 · #1 10-31-2005, 08:27 PM

Party Poker 1.00/2.00 Hold'em (10 handed) link

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
Hero calls, UTG+1 calls, 4 folds, CO checks, 2 folds, BB raises, Hero calls, UTG+1 calls, CO calls.

Flop: (8.50 SB) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB bets, Hero raises, UTG+1 folds, CO calls, BB calls.

Turn: (7.25 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, CO calls, BB calls.

River: (10.25 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB bets, Hero ?

Final Pot: 12.25 BB.

it is possible BB has JQ but more likely Ax Kx - or two large spades. Does anyone raise this after being called down all the way?

#2 10-31-2005, 08:31 PM

This is a pretty easy raise IMO. QJ [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] or J10 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] are pretty unlikely to have been raised from the BB. AA, or AK or something else much more likely.

#3 10-31-2005, 08:32 PM

Raise this baby.

bwana devil · #4 10-31-2005, 08:33 PM

raise. he most likely hit his big cards.

and fold preflop.

#5 10-31-2005, 08:34 PM

Probably not:

1.) higher straight on board now, as well as the flush. BB was drawing to something. I think he would've raised the turn with a big K.

2.) there's still CO, who played it about the same way. I don't think we can be certain enough that neither hit their draw to raise here. If you do, are you folding to a 3bet? A raise may fold CO, though calling may not, so I don't know if it's any more profitable, and you risk a 3bet from the guy on your left (who bet into you on the river) or right (who's been riding along on this board).

jaxUp · #6 10-31-2005, 08:36 PM

this is a definite raise. You see 2 pair here almost every time. If the A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] wasn't on board, then a call would be more correct as his play could be more in line with AT [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] or KT [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (but the K is also on board. Actually though, CO is somewhat troubling and I am curious to see some math here. Somebody give it to me.

milesdyson · #7 10-31-2005, 08:38 PM

should be a relatively easy value raise. the ace makes no larger straights, and both the preflop raiser and the flop coldcaller are unlikely to have two spades. guarantee yourself another big bet, because the flop coldcaller might not overcall here anyway, but the preflop raiser most likely hit that ace.

cfjr2 · #8 10-31-2005, 08:39 PM

I would normally fold this PF from UTG but this table supports this (this is about as low as I'd go though and only suited)

I am more worried about the river "leak" - is this another bet situation?
Party Poker 1.00/2.00 Hold'em (9 handed) link

Preflop: Hero is CO with 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
5 folds, Hero raises, 2 folds, BB calls.

Flop: (4.50 SB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, BB raises, Hero 3-bets, BB calls.

Turn: (5.25 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, BB calls.

River: (7.25 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks.

Final Pot: 7.25 BB.

I was worried I was being slowplayed.

I have taken a lot of bad beats on the turn / river by bigger sets, str8s, flushes and think I am mixing up the guidline of don't bet you'll only be called or raised by better hands (?)

bwana devil · #9 10-31-2005, 08:44 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Preflop: Hero is CO with 4, 4.
5 folds, Hero raises, 2 folds, BB calls.

[/ QUOTE ]

only call preflop.

bet the river.

i think youre over valuing your hand preflop. after the flop these two hands you played fairly well.

#10 10-31-2005, 08:45 PM

I think he c/r the flop with two pair (8s and 9s) much more likely than with the bottom end of an OESD. After 3betting the flop and betting the turn, I don't think he could be too worried about losing you if he's holding a higher set, he'd bet/raise the turn.

Bet the river.