AQo vs a preflop LAG

IPSC · #1 06-06-2005, 06:25 PM

UTG has only played 4 hands at the table.

UTG-2 is more than likely a preflop LAG.

VPIP 67%, PFR 13%, AF 1.31, WTSD 59, Won $ SD 60%.

**Only 24 hands on this player when this hand was played**

I know this sample is very small, but I think I can safely use his VPIP and PFR stats to help me play this hand.

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is Button with Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG calls, 1 fold, UTG+2 raises, 4 folds, Hero 3-bets, 2 folds, UTG calls, UTG+2 calls.

I feel at this point my AQ compares favorably to the hands UTG-2 is playing. I want to encourage the blinds and the limping UTG to fold.

Flop: (10.50 SB) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
UTG checks, UTG+2 checks, Hero bets, UTG calls, UTG+2 calls.

I think this flop bet is marginal since I have no backdoors and one my overcards could be no good, but the pot is 10.5 SB, a bet may improve my winning chances, and I may be able to get free card.

Turn: (6.75 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
UTG checks, UTG+2 checks, Hero checks.

Flop didn't fold anybody. I'm positive I'll have to improve to win, doubt I can fold anyone, and I'm drawing very thin so I think this is an obvious free card.

River: (6.75 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
UTG bets, UTG+2 calls, Hero calls.

Well I luckily improve. Is this the correct spot to make an overcall? Overcall section has me pretty confused in SSH. Am I good more than 10% of the time here?

Final Pot: 9.75 BB

aK13 · #2 06-06-2005, 06:26 PM

Bet turn, bet river.

The rest looks good.

btw, PT stats are useless at 25 hands.

Bodhi · #3 06-06-2005, 06:32 PM

I would check this turn. What is betting supposed to accomplish? A free showdown when we still have squat?

topspin · #4 06-06-2005, 06:36 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I would check this turn. What is betting supposed to accomplish? A free showdown when we still have squat?

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed. I'm folding preflop though. PFR 13 over 25 hands does not a LAG read make.

IPSC · #5 06-06-2005, 06:42 PM

At what point do you think I can call him a preflop loose agressive? Would seeing him showdown a preflop raised Ace-rag allow one to make this read, or do I just need more hands with this guy?

topspin · #6 06-06-2005, 06:46 PM

[ QUOTE ]
At what point do you think I can call him a preflop loose agressive? Would seeing him showdown a preflop raised Ace-rag allow one to make this read, or do I just need more hands with this guy?

[/ QUOTE ]

If you had 50 hands on him with a PFR of 25, I'd like this play.

PFR 12 is not really LAG to start with, and 24 hands is way too small to make a read. That means he's raised 3 hands the whole time you've seen him. He could easily be dealt a run of 3 good hands to account for that. Seeing a showdown of what hands villain has raised with is even more useful.

BTW, you do realize you're behind to A-rag preflop, right? [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Rah · #7 06-06-2005, 06:47 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Bet turn, bet river.

The rest looks good.

btw, PT stats are useless at 25 hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

Betting that turn is chip spewing - especially without any hearts on hand.

Roybert · #8 06-06-2005, 06:57 PM

<grunching>

I like it up until the river. I would definitely raise the river here.

IPSC · #9 06-06-2005, 06:58 PM

I appreciate the reply!

If the thought would of crossed my mind that he has only raised 3 hands preflop and not that his PFR was 13% I hope I would have been able to fold this.