QQ can lick my nuts

[ropey]

[ QUOTE ]
Hand 1 I think you can safely check/fold the river. Even on a 6-max table, you're not really ahead of much that he might raise from UTG; your only hope is a ridiculously overplayed medium pocket pair, or a similarly overplayed KJ. Barring a read that this opponent is capable of playing that poorly, the river call doesn't seem +EV.

Hand 2 is really player-specific. If he's the kind of guy that would limp first in from the CO with an ace, and/or wouldn't raise the flop with anything less than top pair, then I guess the turn fold is okay. But I'm not convinced yet that he isn't on a misplayed flush draw or aggressively played J, and I'd want to see the river HU.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why not fold to the flop raise?

-ropey

[ropey]

[ QUOTE ]
I think you could've bet/folded the turn in the first two hands - though I'm likely skewed after seeing the turn actions.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why waste another bet? I'm folding to the flop raise a large percentage of the time.

-ropey

[aK13]

16 and 13 to 1 to chase my set, BDFD, and BDSD...I think it's an ok peel.

[ropey]

[ QUOTE ]
16 and 13 to 1 to chase my set

[/ QUOTE ]

Please explain.

-ropey

[Harv72b]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
16 and 13 to 1 to chase my set

[/ QUOTE ]

Please explain.

-ropey

[/ QUOTE ]

With those pot odds & implied odds, plus the chance that Hero's opponent is making a play with a draw or weaker hand on the flop, neither is a terrible flop call. You also don't want to bet/fold a lot of flops for metagame reasons. Plus, in hand 2 Hero is holding a backdoor to the 2nd nut flush.

Of course, in hand 1 one of Hero's two outs completes the potential flush draw which is one of the hands we're hoping villian holds.

EDIT because Hero is holding the Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] in hand 1, again giving him the backdoor draw & making both of his set outs likely good.

[aK13]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
16 and 13 to 1 to chase my set

[/ QUOTE ]

Please explain.

-ropey

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I'd say about 1.5 outs for each backdoor draw, and 2 outs for my set, totaling about 5 outs for my hand. Take away probably 1 out in case I'm drawing dead against a higher set or up against some weirdly played hand.

4 outs total by my count.

[ropey]

When you hit a card on the turn to give you a gut shot...do you have appropriate odds to call a BB on the turn to make that worthwhile?

[crunchy1]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think you could've bet/folded the turn in the first two hands - though I'm likely skewed after seeing the turn actions.

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Why waste another bet? I'm folding to the flop raise a large percentage of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]
Then you're folding the best hand a large percentage of the time. People love to semi-bluff raise on the come. People also love to wait to raise their big hands until the big-bet streets.