FT Hand - Hero is a thief

[MLG]

so, you think there are a lot of hands that we are ahead of that would call the turn bet, but would then check fold the river if we checked behind on the turn? maybe some weak draws...but there are more hands that we are ahead of that we can encourage to take a shot at us. you are right that we may let J10/JQ type hand hits but i think thats outweighed by encouraging bluffs..

here's a good question, if the guy has over cards, how often does he need to bluff when he misses in order for it to be right for us to check behind?

[LearnedfromTV]

[ QUOTE ]
so, you think there are a lot of hands that we are ahead of that would call the turn bet, but would then check fold the river if we checked behind on the turn? maybe some weak draws...but there are more hands that we are ahead of that we can encourage to take a shot at us. you are right that we may let J10/JQ type hand hits but i think thats outweighed by encouraging bluffs..

here's a good question, if the guy has over cards, how often does he need to bluff when he misses in order for it to be right for us to check behind?

[/ QUOTE ]

Besides the overcards, there's T9, 65, 54, diamonds, a weaker 7 or 66-44 that might get scared off by a broadway river (or may make it harder for you to value bet). J of diamonds on the river is the classic beat you or kill your action card, and there are many similar cards.

I'll agree, though, that your overcards bluff induce question is key and could tip me to being wrong. Have you done the math already?

Edit: worth noting here that JT/J9 have ten outs and T9 has 14, so in terms of pure overcard hands we're only talking about QJ-Q9, AQ-A9. Also, we have his kings reverse dominated, which is a slight push towards a check.

[MLG]

no, but lets do some simple calulating. there's 10k in the pot, now lets say that he bets 8k on the river when he hits (thats a big bet, but thats what hero bet so ill just use that). villain hits 6/42 and the time he hits it costs us 18k (10k in the pot + 8k we call). (6/42)(18)=2.6.

My gut says we make more than that, as its a small amount, but my pizza just got here and im hungry so im aborting the math.