#1
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Commerce 10/20 Freerolling Math Question
Not that interesting a situation, but I was hoping you math guys could shed some light on this for me - I'm interested if Villain made a proper +EV call, and although I'm kind of a math guy, I don't do real math with formulas and stuff.
Crazy table, 5 handed, 10/20 no cap. Maniac (20K) raises to 150 as he does 80% of hands, 2 callers to me ($5000) on the Button with A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. I call. Flop is J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Checked to Villain ($5000) who bets $400. I call it's heads up. Turn K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. Villain bets $900, and I move all in. He knows I'm freerolling with the spades. He has A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Is this auto-call for him? |
#2
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Re: Commerce 10/20 Freerolling Math Question
call
20% of the time he'll win $0 80% of the time he'll win $5300 weighted avg = 4240 if he folds, he'll be left w/ 3600 or so |
#3
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Re: Commerce 10/20 Freerolling Math Question
That's so simple. And I'm so lazy and dumb.
Thanks. |
#4
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Re: Commerce 10/20 Freerolling Math Question
[ QUOTE ]
call 20% of the time he'll win $0 80% of the time he'll win $5300 weighted avg = 4240 if he folds, he'll be left w/ 3600 or so [/ QUOTE ] Maybe I'm missing something. Shouldn't it be 20% of the time he loses whatever he has to call (don't have original post open) instead of just making 0? |
#5
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Re: Commerce 10/20 Freerolling Math Question
[ QUOTE ]
call 20% of the time he'll win $0 80% of the time he'll win $5300 weighted avg = 4240 [/ QUOTE ] you might want to recheck your math. |
#6
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Re: Commerce 10/20 Freerolling Math Question
Jonas - I know how much you enjoy deriding others, but please give me the real answer. My mind doesn't work this way.
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#7
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Re: Commerce 10/20 Freerolling Math Question
$3200 in pot. You will win 20% of the time.
So 80% of the time he wins $1600 = .8*1600= 1280 20% of the time he loses $3400 = .2*3400= 780 Looks like a good call. I apologize if my math is wrong |
#8
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here\'s the real answer...
35 * 1600 = 56000
9 * -3550 = -31950 it's a call |
#9
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Re: here\'s the real answer...
cant you have As X (X not of spades) some % of the time here? If i was villain i'd be hardpressed to give you As Xs more than say 90% of the time... i think this should be factored in.
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#10
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Re: here\'s the real answer...
[ QUOTE ]
cant you have As X (X not of spades) some % of the time here? If i was villain i'd be hardpressed to give you As Xs more than say 90% of the time... i think this should be factored in. [/ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] He knows I'm freerolling with the spades. [/ QUOTE ] |
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