Re-bluff: possible squeeze-bluff

[Marlow]

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btw what are results?

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He folded. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

I know I got away with something, but I think that there's a very powerful principle connected with Game Theory that I'm going to continue to explore. It was poory executed this time, but if I can get it right, it'll be a hell of a weapon.

[mindflayer]

skip my last post.
I was in a hurry and misread the hand.
You are being squeezed.

[Big_Jim]

Sorry, for being a jackass about my earlier response, but I didn't feel like going over it, because I felt that the errors in your logic were obvious, and that you would see them when you looked at it again.

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Let's say you get called 50% of the time and you're a 2.5-1 dog on average (when you get called).

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I think that these assumptions are pretty bad. You admit to them being generous, but nonetheless....

a) When he's NOT putting a squeeze on us (which most players are not), he often has a big pair, in which case, we are about a 4:1 dog.
b) Even when he IS putting a squeeze on us, we are often behind (maybe dominated), and it will be difficult for him to fold getting fantastic odds.
c) You are ignoring SB (although, i do feel that he's usually not a factor)

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If you fold you lose $12.

If you push:
50% of the time you win $67
14.3% of the time you win $197
35.7% of the time you lose $142
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average win of $11

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Don't include your prior action when doing an EV calc.

My off the cuff response was based on a traditional EV calc, not your wacky "results from folding vs. results from pushing" calc.


I did an EV calc, but came up with exactly the same thing MrFeelNothin did.

So, GIVEN YOUR ASSUMPTIONS, a push is marginally correct. However, I feel your assumptions are bogus.

My assumptions would be that we get called more often (say 75-80%), and that we have worse equity on average. (Say 3:1)

[aggie]

Thanks Big_ Jim,

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not your wacky "results from folding vs. results from pushing" calc.

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Yes, i understand how you and mrfeelnothin did the EV calc. I just got one number wrong. But figuring "results from folding vs. results from pushing" is exactly the same as figuring EV. The EV is the difference.

When you fold you lose $12
When you push you lose $4.37

EV = 12 - 4.37 = $7.63 (this is the number mrfeelnothin came up with)

I like doing it this way because you see the result of the hand -$4.37 (and it's more logical to me this way). It's interesting that pushing is a losing play but it's still +EV

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My assumptions would be that we get called more often (say 75-80%), and that we have worse equity on average. (Say 3:1)

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I still think it's probably somewhere betweeen your #'s and what i said. I think 2.5/1 dog is much more realistic than 3-1 (particularly if he's calling 80% of the time) but FE is probably closer to what you say.

[Big_Jim]

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I like doing it this way because ... it's more logical to me this way.

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Fair enough, but my way is better. =P

[Marlow]

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I still think it's probably somewhere betweeen your #'s and what i said. I think 2.5/1 dog is much more realistic than 3-1 (particularly if he's calling 80% of the time) but FE is probably closer to what you say.

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Ok, so I ran the numbers in PokerStove, and got a suprising result:

<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre> equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 31.4306 % 31.10% 00.33% { JTo }
Hand 2: 68.5694 % 68.24% 00.33% { 88+, ATs+, KQs, AQo+ }</pre><hr />

My chances of winning against a better hand is actually just a little worse than 2-1. If we think he plays pairs down to say 55, then I'm exactly a 2-1 dog. I don't think that this shows that the play was good, but I think that it illustrates an interesting point. If next time I think I have as much as 25-30% FE, then all-in is not a bad play.

Or is there a piece of this that I'm missing?

[Big_Jim]

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Or is there a piece of this that I'm missing?

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You think he's squeezing much more often than I do.