The Hirsch report on Peak oil

[whiskeytown]

this has concerned me greatly, esp. ever since the price of gas doubled -

There are a couple options - first is oil/shale extraction - Oil companies are looking to this - it's about $60 bucks a barrel unless they can improve the efficency, but we're damn close to that now anyways - after a point, certain technologies that no one is using because of expenses become cost-effective.

my only concern isn't that losers will have to give up SUV's, but that so much of our food production/transportation is dependant on oil still - solar/fuel cell cars are one thing - a combine is another - [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

but yes, esp. in the cities, public transportation is going to become more important - and if I lived in the country, I'd start taking steps to isolate myself from the grid/infrastructure as much as possible -

RB

[whiskeytown]

don't sweat -

it's common for people who might disagree with the facts of an article to bash the writers rather then actually read/refute said facts -

oil peak production is a legitmate concern, esp. given the fact that demand is growing steadily now that China is starting to modernize -

it makes the threat of Argentina all the more interesting. The president of Argentina has threatened to stop selling the US oil if we keep trying to destablize his presidency/government. - With Oil peak production getting close, he could stop selling to us in 5 yrs. and totally funnel their demand to Asia/China without a blip.

Then we'll have to go and invade them under pretenses of looking for weapons of mass destruction, I suppose....but we got a few yrs. for that.

RB

[Il_Mostro]

[ QUOTE ]
first is oil/shale extraction - Oil companies are looking to this - it's about $60 bucks a barrel unless they can improve the efficency

[/ QUOTE ]
The main problem with oil shale / tar sands isn't price, it's extraction rates, as they say in the report, Canadian tar sands are projected to deliver 5 million barrels/day in 2030.
Yes it might help, but there really seems to be no way we can just switch to heavy oil and continue as we do now.

[ QUOTE ]
solar/fuel cell cars are one thing

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same thing there, solar cells will never be able to let us go on as we do today. It may help, but it does not scale to replace oil.

But as you say, personal transport isn't even the main problem.

[CCass]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
first is oil/shale extraction - Oil companies are looking to this - it's about $60 bucks a barrel unless they can improve the efficency

[/ QUOTE ]
The main problem with oil shale / tar sands isn't price, it's extraction rates, as they say in the report, Canadian tar sands are projected to deliver 5 million barrels/day in 2030.
Yes it might help, but there really seems to be no way we can just switch to heavy oil and continue as we do now.

[ QUOTE ]
solar/fuel cell cars are one thing

[/ QUOTE ]
same thing there, solar cells will never be able to let us go on as we do today. It may help, but it does not scale to replace oil.

But as you say, personal transport isn't even the main problem.

[/ QUOTE ]

What % of worldwide oil produced is used for automobiles? How much would we "help" the issue if we could find alternatives for residential/office heating with technology that might not be practical for vehicles?

[Felix_Nietsche]

Why? Two Words"
Oil Shale

THE USA has about 60% of the world's supply of oil shale. And from oil shale we can make oil.
So why don't we make oil from oil shale?

Economics.
I believe the cost to extract oil from oil shale is about $30 per barrel. So to make money from oil shale the price of oil must THEORETCALLY be $31/barrel but realistically the price needs to be around $50/ barrel since the oil-shale plant investors will want a high enough price before they risk the capital to build a plant. The worst case scenario for builders of an oil shale plant is to build the plant and then see the price slip below $31/b.

Oil producing nations are restricted from charging too much because then they open the door for alternative sources of energy like oil shale. If they ignore these retrictions and an oil shale plant is built, they have created another competitor. And once an oil shale plant is built, it will produce oil forever (as long as the price of oil is $31/b or higher which will be true for a LONG, LONG, LONG Time).

Also there are other sources of oil that could be tapped as well but what makes oil shale so tantalizing is there are ENORMOUS amounts of oil shale. If conventional sources of oil were to be depleted, the USA could become the 'Saudia Arabia' of oil producing nations. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[Il_Mostro]

[ QUOTE ]
What % of worldwide oil produced is used for automobiles?

[/ QUOTE ]
Roughly 2/3 are used for transportation.

Conservation, forced or volontary, will help, but it will not remove the problem.

[Il_Mostro]

[ QUOTE ]
Why? Two Words"
Oil Shale

[/ QUOTE ]
Two words:
Extraction rates

I'll give you some more:
EROEI (Energy Return on Energy Input)

It is not just a matter of economics. Sure, oil shale might be economically viable at oil prices of somewhere around 30$ (a bit higher, more likely), but that does not mean that we can start producing any amount of oil from shale.

It also requires a lot of fresh water to extract oil from shale. And fresh water is already starting to become a constrained resource in the US, and especially so in Colorado, where apparently the largest deposits of shale are locted.

And the environmental costs to process oil shale are staggering.

Hirsch talks about oil shale and tar sands in the report, pages 40-42, read it.

Wikipedia, shale oil

[ QUOTE ]
If conventional sources of oil were to be depleted, the USA could become the 'Saudia Arabia' of oil producing nations.

[/ QUOTE ]
Yes, I've read some propaganda stating as much, but so far it does not seem to be based on reality at all.

[Il_Mostro]

Another interesting piece,
Peak Oil Presentation in the US Congress by Roscoe Bartlett

It's my understanding (wich maybe wrong, I'm not that familiar with US senators) that Bartlett is very much a conservative, which makes his (long and insightful) presentation all the more interesting. When people from all over the spectrum is starting to take about a certain problem it makes a lot of sense to belive it might actually be there.

[Felix_Nietsche]

My point is when the price of oil becomes too high other sources of energy will become more feasible to pursue. Oil shale is just one of those sources....
Even despite its disadvantages....

[natedogg]

Some thoughts.

The market will react faster than any govt could. But govt could easily screw things up by getting too involved.

The U.S. auto fleet will slowly transform to non-gas using vehicles as gas becomes more and more expensive. The first wave will be hybrids which are already appearing. Right now you can get 48 MPG with a hybrid. This is roughly 3x what you get in an SUV. If the auto fleet drops consumption by 1/2 this alone will extend the curve.

All homes and offices will end up using PV solar and even windmills to supplement their energy. Companies that sell this stuff have surged in the last few years as a sign of things to come. When electricity gets expensive enough, panels become economical. It's pretty simple.

Coal powerplants are more common than gas and nuclear. These will increase, along with nuclear.

Farm equipment will almost certainly run entirely on diesel alternatives. While this may increase the base cost of food, that is still a far cry from the peakoil alarmist view of mass starvation.

All this assumes no change in technology. Frankly it's ridiculous to assume we've already hit a wall on every alternative energy path. Some may go nowhere, but for the doomsday scenario all alternative technologies must go nowhere. That's obviously not going to happen. Photovoltaics are already improving and one of the biggest problems is merely supply of silicon, which is being easily addressed.

Just a few random thoughts. Don't panic. Pay attention, certainly. But don't panic. The apocalyptic types are that way by nature. If they didn't have peak oil to latch onto, they'd be in a cult waiting for the end times.

natedogg