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#11
10-25-2005, 02:11 PM
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Re: Do I need the free card here?
I agree with raising the flop here. A bit of a side-track though. When I first read this hand I misread the board. So now I have a theoretical question:
If the board was say 2h Ac Qh, would people call or raise the flop? I was thinking that calling is a good option as we can get overcalls to add value to our flush draw, and we can play our tpnk passively for concealment. If nobody overcalls we can play wa/wb to showdown. 
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#12
10-25-2005, 02:14 PM
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Re: Do I need the free card here?
[ QUOTE ]
I agree with raising the flop here. A bit of a side-track though. When I first read this hand I misread the board. So now I have a theoretical question: If the board was say 2h Ac Qh, would people call or raise the flop? I was thinking that calling is a good option as we can get overcalls to add value to our flush draw, and we can play our tpnk passively for concealment. If nobody overcalls we can play wa/wb to showdown. [/ QUOTE ] I think we're forgoing to much value by not raising the flop in that situation. We have such a massive equity edge that we want to get as many bets in on the flop as possible. Sure, we'd like other players to stay along, but some might call two cold and if that happens even a small amount of the time we get so much value from raising that a raise is definitely better.
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#13
10-25-2005, 02:24 PM
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Re: Do I need the free card here?
[ QUOTE ]
I think we're forgoing to much value by not raising the flop in that situation. We have such a massive equity edge that we want to get as many bets in on the flop as possible. Sure, we'd like other players to stay along, but some might call two cold and if that happens even a small amount of the time we get so much value from raising that a raise is definitely better. [/ QUOTE ] But our equity edge is only "massive" when there are this many players in the pot. I feel like a raise does nothing but isolate us against a possibly bigger ace, and possibly face a 3-bet and turn bet from 2-pair or a set. Plus, the pot is not that big to start with. I'm probably just overthinking this though...
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#14
10-25-2005, 02:29 PM
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Re: Do I need the free card here?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I think we're forgoing to much value by not raising the flop in that situation. We have such a massive equity edge that we want to get as many bets in on the flop as possible. Sure, we'd like other players to stay along, but some might call two cold and if that happens even a small amount of the time we get so much value from raising that a raise is definitely better. [/ QUOTE ] But our equity edge is only "massive" when there are this many players in the pot. I feel like a raise does nothing but isolate us against a possibly bigger ace, and possibly face a 3-bet and turn bet from 2-pair or a set. Plus, the pot is not that big to start with. I'm probably just overthinking this though... [/ QUOTE ] Against a bigger A, we have 12 outs, and so are only a slight dog on the flop. I'm not at all worried about sets or top two pair, since AA and QQ are raising hands for almost anyone and I'm not willing to get too worried about 22 yet. Q2 seems pretty unlikely if the player isn't a total donkey. We are in pretty good shape with counterfeit outs against A2. Also, many of the bigger As raise pre-flop anyway. So my point is that our hand is really quite good. I think that you are underestimating the chances that we simply have the best hand here. Rather than thinking about it as "getting heads-up with a draw against a better hand," I recommend thinking about it as "getting a bunch of bets in with a nut draw and a hand that is very often best." The basic point is that when we're ahead we're WAY ahead and when we're behind we're only slightly behind. If we're ahead any reasonably amount of the time a raise is quite clear in my opinion.
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#15
10-25-2005, 02:34 PM
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Re: Do I need the free card here?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I think we're forgoing to much value by not raising the flop in that situation. We have such a massive equity edge that we want to get as many bets in on the flop as possible. Sure, we'd like other players to stay along, but some might call two cold and if that happens even a small amount of the time we get so much value from raising that a raise is definitely better. [/ QUOTE ] But our equity edge is only "massive" when there are this many players in the pot. I feel like a raise does nothing but isolate us against a possibly bigger ace, and possibly face a 3-bet and turn bet from 2-pair or a set. Plus, the pot is not that big to start with. I'm probably just overthinking this though... [/ QUOTE ] pokenum -h ad 8c - ah 5h - qs 9h -- 2h as qh Holdem Hi: 903 enumerated boards containing As Qh 2h cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV 8c Ad 231 25.58 532 58.91 140 15.50 0.333 Ah 5h 401 44.41 362 40.09 140 15.50 0.522 Qs 9h 131 14.51 772 85.49 0 0.00 0.145 pokenum -h ad 8c - ah 5h -- 2h as qh / qs 9h Holdem Hi: 903 enumerated boards containing As Qh 2h cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV 8c Ad 303 33.55 401 44.41 199 22.04 0.446 Ah 5h 401 44.41 303 33.55 199 22.04 0.554
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#16
10-25-2005, 02:36 PM
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Re: Do I need the free card here?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] I think we're forgoing to much value by not raising the flop in that situation. We have such a massive equity edge that we want to get as many bets in on the flop as possible. Sure, we'd like other players to stay along, but some might call two cold and if that happens even a small amount of the time we get so much value from raising that a raise is definitely better. [/ QUOTE ] But our equity edge is only "massive" when there are this many players in the pot. I feel like a raise does nothing but isolate us against a possibly bigger ace, and possibly face a 3-bet and turn bet from 2-pair or a set. Plus, the pot is not that big to start with. I'm probably just overthinking this though... [/ QUOTE ] pokenum -h ad 8c - ah 5h - qs 9h -- 2h as qh Holdem Hi: 903 enumerated boards containing As Qh 2h cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV 8c Ad 231 25.58 532 58.91 140 15.50 0.333 Ah 5h 401 44.41 362 40.09 140 15.50 0.522 Qs 9h 131 14.51 772 85.49 0 0.00 0.145 pokenum -h ad 8c - ah 5h -- 2h as qh / qs 9h Holdem Hi: 903 enumerated boards containing As Qh 2h cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV 8c Ad 303 33.55 401 44.41 199 22.04 0.446 Ah 5h 401 44.41 303 33.55 199 22.04 0.554 [/ QUOTE ] Sweet... thanks for the numbers, TME.
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#17
10-25-2005, 02:37 PM
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Re: Do I need the free card here?
[ QUOTE ]
Turn we really, really, really need to bet. We don't have that many outs against hands that are beating us (only 3 against a better A [/ QUOTE ] You actually have 3 winning outs and at least 7 chopping outs against Ax that hasn't yet made 2 pair. Part of me says this should be an argument for "checking behind with outs", but as I see it, it's an argument for betting since, EV-wise, the bet costs less when behind and I really want to charge Qx or a gutshot (w/ 2 clubs). And while I'm in favor of raising this particular flop, calling is more often correct with A/WK than any other TP/WK because overcards can't hurt you. On an uncoordinated flop such as this, I could be convinced that calling is correct. edit: changed "checking" to "calling" in the paragraph discussing the flop.
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#18
10-25-2005, 02:41 PM
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Re: Do I need the free card here?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Turn we really, really, really need to bet. We don't have that many outs against hands that are beating us (only 3 against a better A [/ QUOTE ] You actually have 3 winning outs and at least 7 chopping outs against Ax that hasn't yet made 2 pair. Part of me says this should be an argument for "checking behind with outs", but as I see it, it's an argument for betting since, EV-wise, the bet costs less when behind and I really want to charge Qx or a gutshot (w/ 2 clubs). And while I'm in favor of raising this particular flop, checking is more often correct with A/WK than any other TP/WK because overcards can't hurt you. On an uncoordinated flop such as this, I could be convinced that checking is correct. [/ QUOTE ] My main point throughout this thread is that too many people are simply underestimating how good hero's hand is. With top pair, even with weak kicker, I'm betting down for value all the way and betting the river barring any further aggression, because I have no reason to believe that villain has a better A and I'm getting called by Qs and even smaller pocket pairs sometimes.
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#19
10-25-2005, 02:44 PM
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Re: Do I need the free card here?
[ QUOTE ]
pokenum -h ad 8c - ah 5h - qs 9h -- 2h as qh Holdem Hi: 903 enumerated boards containing As Qh 2h cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV 8c Ad 231 25.58 532 58.91 140 15.50 0.333 Ah 5h 401 44.41 362 40.09 140 15.50 0.522 Qs 9h 131 14.51 772 85.49 0 0.00 0.145 pokenum -h ad 8c - ah 5h -- 2h as qh / qs 9h Holdem Hi: 903 enumerated boards containing As Qh 2h cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV 8c Ad 303 33.55 401 44.41 199 22.04 0.446 Ah 5h 401 44.41 303 33.55 199 22.04 0.554 [/ QUOTE ] Just for the record, you added a heart to the flop. We have top pair and a backdoor flush draw, not top pair and a flush draw.
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#20
10-25-2005, 02:44 PM
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Re: Do I need the free card here?
[ QUOTE ]
pokenum -h ad 8c - ah 5h - qs 9h -- 2h as qh Holdem Hi: 903 enumerated boards containing As Qh 2h cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV 8c Ad 231 25.58 532 58.91 140 15.50 0.333 Ah 5h 401 44.41 362 40.09 140 15.50 0.522 Qs 9h 131 14.51 772 85.49 0 0.00 0.145 pokenum -h ad 8c - ah 5h -- 2h as qh / qs 9h Holdem Hi: 903 enumerated boards containing As Qh 2h cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV 8c Ad 303 33.55 401 44.41 199 22.04 0.446 Ah 5h 401 44.41 303 33.55 199 22.04 0.554 [/ QUOTE ] Thanks, this helps, I really didn't think we had equity on a bigger ace.
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