Neteller Cash Giveaways

[GTSamIAm]

I was wondering if anyone knows which of the NETeller cash giveaways has the highest EV. The one factor you would need to know that you do not know to calculate the EV is the average number of people that register for each giveaway. The EV would be:

Jackpot Amount / Number of Players Registered

Also, I think more useful than the EV would be optimizing your EV for NETeller points since those are not unlimited. So the useful number you want is: EV / Neteller Points or:

Jackpot Amount / (Number of People Registered * NETeller Points Required)

Also, you could use the average number of people registered to figure out your chances of winning any particular jackpot and choose the one with the best chances. I think this the EV here is useful for anyone who racks up NETeller points a lot (like me) since the number of jackpots you register for will get big, the win rate will approach the theoretical EV. That way you can show maximum profit. Or it may not even matter since the standard deviation will be very high and the chance of winning very low. But I believe in always gambling with the highest edge possible.

Also, please check that my logic for EV and EV optimization are correct.

[Benal]

Has anyone actually ever won this, or know of someone who has?

[mattw]

no one in the internet forum has ever won. this gets discussed alot there. there is speculation that there is no drawings. or the sports bettors who move 10k per day are getting all the points and thus always win.