Four handed abomination

[tigerite]

Check/raise all-in on 1, and 2 is fine. You want to maximise FE against them, and their calling range SHOULD be tight.

[lorinda]

ICM has the difference in $EV changing from 22.52 if we fold to 27.75 if we CR and win.
Given that the blinds are still pretty small here, and that they go up slowly, I think we get a large chunk of that back just by being better than our opponents over the next few rounds.

Lori

[durron597]

[ QUOTE ]
ICM has the difference in $EV changing from 22.52 if we fold to 27.75 if we CR and win.
Given that the blinds are still pretty small here, and that they go up slowly, I think we get a large chunk of that back just by being better than our opponents over the next few rounds.

Lori

[/ QUOTE ]

I think if you fold here you can't realistically say you are much better than your opponents.

A lot of the time your caution is warranted, Lorinda, but I can't agree with you here. You are SO far ahead of his range that you really need to get the chips in.

[lorinda]

If we fold we'll have 13BB. In a $11 at Stars I'd imagine that even if we folded the next 12 hands we'll be heads up with 9-10BB.

That should be enough to make us a little under even money to beat a standard HU opponent.

I guess we're going to have to agree to differ. FWIW in the same situation in a Party $55 I'd CR (or push preflop) but for me I'm willing to wait here if this is low limit (Which was an assumption I stated before) because they'll simply call me when I have them beat later on.

Edit: A little under even money is a bit rough, probably more like 35%

Lori

[kevkev60614]

FWIW, this was a $5.50, not an $11.

[lorinda]

One advantage of the CR I've not mentioned is that it will stop him bullying you if it works and get you some implied chips.

I post this just for the sake of balance.

Lori

[pooh74]

[ QUOTE ]
Personally I don't mind the first hand. You're getting 12-1 or something on your money to flop a set and stuck to the plan (There was a plan right?) of getting away cheaply if you missed.

It's limit dependent, but certainly in the lower limits I think this play is fine.

Lori

[/ QUOTE ]

Your caution is fine Lorinda... I REALLY disagree with your line, but whatever.

My problem with your post is your reasoning in favor of OP's line. He is not really getting 12-1 here. Aggressive PF players like UTG here are not going to pay off a set even half the time I imagine. Playing this for set only is wrong. This flop is great for 88 and I'd at least take a stab at a raise.

This brings up another possible thread about how players misconstrue their implied odds so often in favor of their hand to justify loose PF calling. (Dont confuse my post as advocating a fold here, I happen to think 88 is ahead of UTG's range)

[lorinda]

Ok, point taken on the 12-1 , although we're told that the raiser does crazy things, and I imagine we'll double through more than half the time.

You are correct however that I should be more careful when throwing numbers like that around, please pull me on it if I do it again too.

Please read my original post to mean "We have a chance to double through cheaply" as that would be more fair and far more accurate.

Lori

[pooh74]

[ QUOTE ]
Ok, point taken on the 12-1 , although we're told that the raiser does crazy things, and I imagine we'll double through more than half the time.

You are correct however that I should be more careful when throwing numbers like that around, please pull me on it if I do it again too.

Please read my original post to mean "We have a chance to double through cheaply" as that would be more fair and far more accurate.

Lori

[/ QUOTE ]

I think one needs to factor in 88 or xx playing on its own somewhat to make this a consistently profitable play. Factoring in that sets are NOT going to be paid off 100% of the time can be made up for the fact that 88 will win medium to large pots with out improvement against Laggy players.

That said, I'll let you slide this time. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[lorinda]

I think the OP should ignore everything I've posted in this thread given the standard of the posters who say my line is very wrong.

I'd have gotten away with it too if it weren't for them pesky kids [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

Lori