A post for Ed Miller

[Mikey]

Read Small Stakes HE

A hand I witnessed that I think should have been played differently but what I need to know is how to figure out mathematically my outs.

Hero open raises with JTo on button to steal blinds in 15-30 game

Both blinds call.

Now there are 6 SB in pot.

Flop is 9 4 3.

Both blinds check.

How do you calculate the effective odds for backdooring a straight on both the turn and river or hitting a pair on both the turn and river?

Its the backdoor straights I have trouble calculating.

Thanks in Advance.

[MicroBob]

I'll try -

Count the back-door straight as roughly 1 (or 1.5) outs at this point.
This is roughly the chance of hitting your runner-runner backdoor straight. You can see an explanation of this and various references to it at various places in SSHE (someone else can dig up the page numbers if they like...I'm too lazy to get my copy from the other room).


you also have the 3 J's and 3 T's for 7 outs total (that you can discount a little because you're not sure if the J's or T's are good)

On the turn you will re-adjust your straight outs.
If it's a blank you now have Zero straight-outs.
If it's 8 or Q you now have 8 outs with your OESD.
If it's a 7 or K then you have 4 outs to hit your gut-shot.

[Ed Miller]

Its the backdoor straights I have trouble calculating.

Eight cards (4 queens and 4 eights) will give you an open-ender. Eight cards (4 kings and 4 sevens) will give you a gutshot. Thus, you make a straight:

(8/47)(8/46) + (8/47)(4/46) = 96/2162 ~= 21.5-to-1

[Mikey]

Can you use actual hand examples....

I'm still a little confused on what a "ZERO GAP", "ONE GAP" or "TWO GAPS" mean.

Can you illustrate exaple what

ONE GAP: (QJ9) means
TWO GAMP (QT8) means

Thanks.

[Mikey]

yes but I'm looking for the effective odds of hiting you backdoor straight draw, when i come to the turn then I can readjust.

[Mikey]

Lets say I have :

JhTh

The flop is 9h 3s 4d.

What is the calculation for both a backdoor flush draw and backdoor straight draw, I get confused because some of the the straight outs mesh with the flush outs. I don't want to increase my percentages when they are actually lower.

Thanks in Advance.

P.S. This isn't the same as the other topic I just posted.
can you answer this question seperately.

[Ed Miller]

Lets say I have :

JhTh

The flop is 9h 3s 4d.

What is the calculation for both a backdoor flush draw and backdoor straight draw, I get confused because some of the the straight outs mesh with the flush outs. I don't want to increase my percentages when they are actually lower.

Ok. Six cards (3 non-heart queens and eights) give you a open-ender. Six cards (3 non-heart kings and sevens) give you a gutshot. Two cards (Qh and 8h) give you an open-ended straightflush draw. Two cards (Kh and 7h) give you a gutshot straightflush draw. And six cards (A through 6 of hearts) give you a flush draw.

Thus:

(6/47)(8/46) + (6/47)(4/46) + (2/47)(15/46) + (2/47)(12/46) + (6/47)(9/46) = 180/2162 ~= 11-to-1

[Ed Miller]

zero gap (JT9):

JT on a 943 flop

one gap (QJ9):

QJ on a 943 flop

two gap (QT8):

QT on an 843 flop

[Mikey]

wow and to think you can answer these questions in a timely manner. Thanks Ed. Very Helpful.

[scrub]

Note that the game in question was a relatively aggressive 15/30 game that I was still feeling out, and in which very few of my free card plays were working.

I don't always check this hand, but I don't think betting it is automatic.

Having Mikey watch me play my session last night, however, was incredibly helpful. Everyone ought to try this--I had to engage with some of the marginal hands that I played much more actively than I do when playing alone, and I think it helped my game a lot.

scrub