Fold KK pre-flop?

Irishboy · #1 07-10-2004, 12:37 AM

Party 100 + 9 tourney

Blinds are 25/50 and I have the second biggest stack.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t50 (7 handed) converter

saw flop|saw showdown

BB (t1695)
Irishboy (t1840)
MP1 (t2635)
MP2 (t1150)
CO (t825)
Button (t975)
SB (t880)

Preflop: Irishboy is UTG with K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
Irishboy raises to t150, MP1 folds, MP2 raises to t1150 (All-In)CO folds, Button folds, SB calls t855 (All-In), , BB raises to t1695 (All-In)

I show strength UTG and 3 all-in's follow. Is this a situation where you fold KK preflop?

BB is the biggest concern. He is a tight player who plays well.

What do you put him on?

What do you do? Results to follow

stupidsucker · #2 07-10-2004, 02:08 AM

When I first read the subject, I thought the same thing I always think....

You just dont fold KK preflop....

BUT

I feel this is a good lay down, and maybe I will get jumped all over for saying it, but if BB is really a strong player and he goes all in behind 2 other all ins, you have a good reason to fold. Even if you are up against QQ JJ and TT(or sub AK here), its still 6(7) outs to hurt you badly. Not to mention someone else might have KK and this gives you no outs for a set.

I think I would fold this... Its still early and this looks gruesome to me.

threeonefour · #3 07-10-2004, 02:24 AM

I should preface my comments by saying I haven't done any hard math on this scenario.

If you fold. there is a decent chance 2 players get knocked out. At least a couple of guys are going to get knocked out or lose basically all their chips. Two of the other players not involved in the hand have relatively short stacks.

So, if you fold you have a very decent chance of landing in the money. If you call, and win we can say for the sake of argument that you are guaranteed 1st place.

In the end, I would tend to go with the fold since there is probably AK and two pocket pairs at the very best. I would honestly be surprised that there wasn't an AA out there, in which case you know you are in horrible shape.

I would only call if I somehow thought I couldn't reasonably make the money otherwise.

Jurollo · #4 07-10-2004, 03:05 AM

I go for it, and if you are up against AA tip your hat. Chances are the 3 all-ins have at LEAST 2 of the A's tied up with AK or AQ so there goes some of the outs that can beat you. Could be flawed logic, but just my thinking.

Dooner · #5 07-10-2004, 07:06 AM

Ahhh, this is one of the few moments in Poker that can have you pulling your hair out. Having KK preflop, is an extremely strong position. The only hand that can beat you before the flop is AA.

The odds of being dealt AA (or KK for that matter) preflop are 220 to 1. The odds of being dealt AKs are 331 to 1. So, if you go by outright odds, the odds are in your favor that you have the best hand. They could both have an Ace and a decent kicker. But it still is a tough decision when you are facing two all-ins.

So next, after looking at the odds, I would look at the players and think back to how they have been playing. Are they aggresive? Have they defended their blinds throughout the tournament? Do they play mediocre hands ever? Have they been caught trying to steal? Are they low enough that gambling now is a good move on their part?

Finally, you have to take into account the online factor. This is what I call the miracle flops that only seem to happen online. If you have a played a lot of online poker, then you will know what I mean. With all that said, it would take a lot for me to fold KK, preflop. Sometimes you just have to gamble, and having the second best hand possible, I would say push your chips in and go for the gold.

[img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

woodguy · #6 07-10-2004, 07:43 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Finally, you have to take into account the online factor. This is what I call the miracle flops that only seem to happen online. If you have a played a lot of online poker, then you will know what I mean.

[/ QUOTE ]

Miracle flops happen in b&m's too.
No conspiracy theories please.

In regards to the hand:
Ugh, tough one.
BB's bet sure looks likes AA. I can say you should probably lay down, but I can't remember the last time I laid down KK PF. (probably a leak)

regards,
woodguy

Irishboy · #7 07-10-2004, 10:02 AM

MP2 had 10, 10
SB was a dumbass who pushed with AQ offsuit
BB also had KK

I ended up calling with my KK.

Flop contained a 10 and MP2 took down a monster pot.

In retrospect this was a good call since I looked to be in real good shape to split a nice sized pot.

I may never see a situation like this again so it's probably not worth spending this much time thinking about it. But I think 90% of the time I will be up against AA in a scenario like this.

Against 1 all-in, easy call.
Against 2 all-ins, still easy call but I'm mad because I know they'll be drawing to more outs.

Against 3 all-ins, one of whom is tight and has a healthy stack AND acted after I raised UTG and two people have pushed.....hmmmm, I don't like my chances at all.

Normally, I would put BB on KK or AA and if I had QQ it's an easy fold. Since I had KK, I didn't even consider the fact that he could have it too.

Thanks for your responses.

BradleyT · #8 07-10-2004, 12:23 PM

Code:<hr /><pre>
Monte carlo simulation results from Poker Calculator 1.1.4.1
Texas Hold'em, 250000 combinations tested.

Hand 1:
Range of hands: AA , KK , QQ , JJ , TT , 99 , AKs, AQs
AJs, KQs, AKo

Hand 2:
Range of hands: AA , KK , QQ , JJ , TT , 99 , 88 , AKs
AQs, AJs, KQs, AKo

Hand 3:
Range of hands: AA , KK , QQ , JJ , AKs

Hand 4:
KsKc

Hand | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
------+--------------+--------------+--------------+--------------+
Win | 18701 | 17947 | 25406 | 32794 |
Draw | 2299 | 1994 | 3273 | 3491 |
Lose | 79000 | 80059 | 71321 | 63715 |
------+--------------+--------------+--------------+--------------+
Win% | 19.76% | 18.85% | 26.95% | 34.45% |
------+--------------+--------------+--------------+--------------+
</pre><hr />

So about 63% of the time you're knocked down to 145 chips and 5 players left. At this point 5,500 chips would virtually locks you into the money however it's not a guarantee for 1st. Maybe someone good at math can tell you what your avg outcome should be with 5,500 chips and 4 players left.

I'm thinking it's close but leaning towards calling. If you could do this play every single SnG you played you'd be ITM 35% of the time and a very high portion would be 1sts.

holeplug · #9 07-10-2004, 01:44 PM

I don't think I would/will ever fold KK preflop in a SNG. Theres a good chance the other players are holding each others outs and if one has AA then just start a new SNG. If you win the hand your coasting to aleast ITM here so take the shot.

stupidsucker · #10 07-10-2004, 02:41 PM

I guessed right with that possible other KK out there.

You may have been ahead(in a tie), but if I could see those cards I would probably fold the KK anyways, and let the guy with KK take the pot down alone.

I stand by this being a good laydown. I think you were lucky to be up against what you were and you still lost the pot.

Good post though. Almost all of the KK posts are easy calls, this one was worth discussing.