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  #21  
Old 08-31-2005, 02:59 PM
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Default Re: Pot sized bet overused in NL poker?

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If you bet the pot or more than the pot, and they fold their draw, which a lot of players do, you made them play correctly by folding their draw...they are no longer making wrong decisions.

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This makes no sense. I think you are the inexperienced N/L player here. Why would you bet an amount where they are correct to call with a draw? You either want them to fold their draw hands or call getting incorrect odds. You cannot have it both ways.

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I don't think either of these comments are particularly true. If you knew how your opponents would react, then the correct amount to bet would be the maximum amount that they would call with incorrect odds. This puts the smallest amount of a correct bet (in terms of protecting your hand) the amount that would enable an opponent to call correctly.

If the maximum size of a bet that an opponent can call correctly is represented by m, the maximum size of a bet the opponent will call is c, your bet is b, and the size of the pot is p, then the following rules apply:
1. If c > m, you will always be making a mistake if b <= m or b > c.
2. If c > m, you will always be correct if m < b <= c. The percentage of your correctness is measured by n = (b-m)/(c-m). You are more correct as n approaches 1.
3. If c <= m, you can never make a correct bet that the opponent will call.

Note the the size of the pot, p, has nothing to do with the correctness of your bet. The fact is that betting so that b = p is the easiest way to give one opponent exactly 2:1 odds on her call, which is insufficient odds for most draws.
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  #22  
Old 08-31-2005, 06:49 PM
AliasMrJones AliasMrJones is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: Denver, CO
Posts: 377
Default Re: Pot sized bet overused in NL poker?

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[ QUOTE ]
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If you bet the pot or more than the pot, and they fold their draw, which a lot of players do, you made them play correctly by folding their draw...they are no longer making wrong decisions.

[/ QUOTE ]

This makes no sense. I think you are the inexperienced N/L player here. Why would you bet an amount where they are correct to call with a draw? You either want them to fold their draw hands or call getting incorrect odds. You cannot have it both ways.

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I don't think either of these comments are particularly true. If you knew how your opponents would react, then the correct amount to bet would be the maximum amount that they would call with incorrect odds.

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IF this hand were played in a vacuum, your statement would be true, but poker is a series of hands. In order to provide "cover" for times when you miss the flop, but want to make a continuation bet, it is advisable to bet less than your opponent might call, but still more than is correct for him to call in order to disguise your continuation bets.

If you always bet the max you thought your opponent would call when you hit the flop you would also have to bet this higher amount when you miss or opponent over time could deduce whether you hit the flop or not based on how you bet. If you do bet this higher amount when you miss you are potentially risking more money than necessary and cutting down on your pot odds when you make a continuation bet. This is covered well in HOH vol. 1.

Of course, another option is to never bluff at the flop when you miss...
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