Pocket 5s blind steal attempt

[thesharpie]

BB is 28/0 with 0.13 postflop AF over 18 hands, his gone to showdown is ~14%. Is this enough to fold the flop or is the sample too small? Button has limped open limped AQs on the cutoff before and raised a FD+OCs on the flop..

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (9 max, 7 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is CO with 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, Button calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, BB calls.

Flop: (6.50 SB) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, Button calls, BB calls.

Turn: (6.25 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, Button calls, BB calls.

River: (9.25 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, Hero checks, Button checks.

Final Pot: 9.25 BB

[Yobz]

18 hand sample size is way too tiny, don't make reads off that.

Tough hand, I don't know what to do on the flop, I think I fold more often than not, though

[Arnfinn Madsen]

At 1/2 I don't think he would bet out on flop with worse hand than 55, since with that flop he expects you to call with all sorts of opening raising hands. For those reasons I would have folded on the flop.

[Maurader1]

I'm not sure I really trust this AF number. I was playing today, and there was a player who, over 80 hands, was 71/5/.9, which would put him as pretty passive, but as I watched him play, for many showndown hands, I had saw him bluff raising turn and river bets, with cards as bad as 72o or K high. Does AF need a huge number of hands to be accurate?

[MrWookie47]

It takes a while to converge, but it's also a function of VPIP. People with higher VPIPs will have lower agg factors because they're playing more marginal hands, not just ones that require betting and raising.

[smartalecc5]

[ QUOTE ]
BB is 28/0 with 0.13 postflop AF over 18 hands, his gone to showdown is ~14%. Is this enough to fold the flop or is the sample too small?

[/ QUOTE ]

Sorry i can't respond to the rest of the post, but I know that 18 hands is definitely no marker to judge a player by. Take those stats with a grain of salt. Id say up in the 70's before you even get a picture and a few hundred hands to truly identify their style.

[ArturiusX]

I disagree, 50 hands is all you need.

[Aaron W.]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
BB is 28/0 with 0.13 postflop AF over 18 hands, his gone to showdown is ~14%. Is this enough to fold the flop or is the sample too small?

[/ QUOTE ]

Sorry i can't respond to the rest of the post, but I know that 18 hands is definitely no marker to judge a player by. Take those stats with a grain of salt. Id say up in the 70's before you even get a picture and a few hundred hands to truly identify their style.

[/ QUOTE ]
4 hands was enough for me to take a read. If you're just staring at stats, then you're missing out on tons of information and you've got to wait about that long (at around 100, I'm fairly comfortable with stats for most players -- tighter players take longer for their postflop numbers to converge).

[zuluking]

[ QUOTE ]
I disagree, 50 hands is all you need.

[/ QUOTE ]

I played a guy today who was 89/3 over his first 35 hands, then 28/0 over the next 40.

[Isura]

Forget about the stats after 18 hands. Open-raise here is standard preflop. Nice hand.