I fold TPTK

[JJNJustin]

I wouldnt fold the turn. You are getting good odds to spike an Ace or queen on the river to beat his KK, plus there is a very good chance you hold the best hand. You could be looking at something like AKspades. Only if he holds QQ or AA are you in bad shape, which is less likely then KK, since you hold AQ and a Q is on the board. True you will lose this pot some of the time, but not often enough to make this a clear fold, especially if the 3-better is not a complete rock or mouse.

-J

[tessarji]

You will often be betting a better hand too. These would be value bets if you are ahead > 50% of the time.

Let me try to quantify the value of your read for this hand, with Bayes theorem.

Your read is that the villain will give the above action 100% with state *A (has AA,KK,QQ) and X% of the time with state *notA (has AK,AQ).

Possibility A, which has relative probability 29.4 %
Villain has you beat:
Hand 1: 91.8182 % 91.82% 00.00% { QQ+ }
Hand 2: 08.1818 % 08.18% 00.00% { AcQc }

Possibility notA, which has probability 71.6%
You are ahead:
Hand 1: 22.3485 % 05.68% 16.67% { AQs+, AQo+ }
Hand 2: 77.6515 % 60.98% 16.67% { AcQc }

You want to determine P(A|B) the probability of A given the action observed (B). This mathematically is determined by Bayes theorem;

P(A|B) = P(A)*P(B|A) \ (P(A)*P(B|A) + P(notA)*P(B|notA))

P(A)P(B|A) = .294
P(notA)P(B|notA) = .716*X

P(A/B) = .294 \ (.294 + .716X)

Let's do a quick example. If your opponent would 3 bet preflop and raise the flop with AK or AQ 15% of the time:

P(A|B) = .732

We know that, given the raise, he has state *A 73.2% of the time, and a weaker hand (state *notA) 26.8% of the time.

Now, what is the break even point?

You are being offered 5.5:1, you want to average 15.4% equity on a calldown. The break even point is given by:

8.18P(A|B) + 77.6(1-P(A|B)) = 15.4

P(A|B) = 89.6 %

This corresponds with a value of X = 4.8%

Conclusion? If villain would 3 bet preflop and raise the flop more than 5% of the time with AK, AQ, you should not fold.

Edit: Fixed the screwy math

You cant fold that hand. He could play AQ that way. He could play a flush draw that way. Heck, he could play a lot of hands that way since he believes you are a donk.. Since you feel you have a good read on him you might 3 bet and bet fold the turn. But calling down is also good.

[tessarji]

I think if I could not justify showing down AQ, vs a re-raiser, on a board of Q747, it would be better to fold to the three-bet preflop.

[SippinSoma]

How about bet/folding the turn?

[me454555]

I'm not a fan of your line at all bob. Viallian could easily be raising the flop betting the turn and planning on checking behind on the river.

I like your flop bet so much but folding the turn is where I think you made the biggest mistake

[MisterKing]

[ QUOTE ]
How about bet/folding the turn?

[/ QUOTE ]

Doesn't this put us in an awkward spot where (if called on the turn) we can't lead the river and have to fold to a bluff bet from missed draws and JJ? I think c/c, c/f is more appropriate. Same number of bets, more showdowns, and we don't fold many hands when we donk the turn (JJ is about it).

[ QUOTE ]
Hi Westley,

Is this pot really big enough we need to bet into the preflop raiser and actually want him to raise? I don't think so. I also think with Pokerbob's read, when this guy does raise the flop, we are in quite a bit of trouble.

-DeathDonkey

[/ QUOTE ]
I can not say this point strongly enough, whenever you are in a 3 way raised pot and the preflop aggressor is directly on your left, it is absolutely critical that you bet into him whenever you flop a top/pair type hand, you should also be betting all your strong draws(flushdraws/OESD's) into the raiser if you think theres a chance the raiser may not have a hand yet. Even with a flushdraw/OESD you do better if you get the pot heads up since this will increase your chance of winning on the turn/river if you spike a pair. This concept is exetremely important, if anyone makes a habit of checking the to raiser with legitimate hands like top pair or a flushdraw/OESD in 3 way pots when the raiser is directly on their left, they are giving up way too much. I know that Bob has a read here, but his read is not that strong, he didnt come out and say "I know this guy will only reraise me with Queens or above"

[Chris Daddy Cool]

wow i don't understand a word of this. maybe i play bad poker?

3-betting the flop is (without doing any math) wrong here. but so is folding the turn. so at least we are in agreement there.

[bobhalford]

Looks like you have good odds for a call on the turn. You are getting 8-1 on your call (I think) and I'd say you are ahead enough of the time to see the river and call it. Villain may have 2 spades and wants to push you off AK, or TT/JJ hoping that you are on the flush draw or AK. Some people will use aggression to push people off better hands when they have a big draw (or a hopeful read on their opponent's hand).

Also, I 3-bet the flop here to define my own and villain's hand to inform turn decision.