How can I possibly be good here?

goofball · #1 11-13-2005, 05:25 AM

Villian opens UTG+1, I 3bet J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] out of the SB, everyone else folds and he calls. He's an unknown in this game (5/10 full).

Flop is 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

I bet, he calls.

Turn is a 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

I bet, he calls.

river is a K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

I bet, he raises.

Obviosuly I don't beat any hand with which he takes this line for value. Is he bluffing often enough? Is this just a feel/game flow question I shouldn't ask?

BoxLiquid · #2 11-13-2005, 05:32 AM

He's not folding river if he had a king. Check and give him the opportunity to bluff?

If he had TT he would fold river most likely when you bet out because of the scare card.

The river bet doesn't seem to accomplish much.

goofball · #3 11-13-2005, 05:51 AM

I think villian can call with a huge number of hands TT and worse here. I think the calling range for most villians (given that he's at the river) includes every hand AQ or better.

Have we not been playing in the same showdown monkey infested games?

MCS · #4 11-13-2005, 05:53 AM

[ QUOTE ]
If he had TT he would fold river most likely when you bet out because of the scare card.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think I agree with that, which is why I think I like the river bet. I can even see something like AQ/AJ calling here.

Folding is probably right on this hand in isolation, but I don't like the image implications if you do it.

EDIT: I swear I didn't just steal your idea; I was already writing it up. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

einbert · #5 11-13-2005, 05:56 AM

This all resides around knowledge of the particular game. Since I have no idea about 5/10 full, I can't make any judgement regarding whether to call the river or not. I'll tell you that I would call this in a heartbeat in 10/20 6max vs an unknown, but that's quite a different game so what does that mean :-p.

As to the way you played the hand up until this point, perfect. The river bet is certainly necessary and will get paid off by a wide range of worse hands.

#6 11-13-2005, 06:07 AM

I like the line you took against a calling type player that will never bluffraise in this spot. Against this type of opponent betting the river maximizes your income in the long run since you can always fold if raised and you never allow him to take a free showdown with a worse hand. But if you are against someone who is capable of bluffraising this river or even just bluffing with hands he wouldnt call a river bet with then checking and calling is the best line IMO.

BoxLiquid · #7 11-13-2005, 08:12 AM

[ QUOTE ]

If he had TT he would fold river most likely when you bet out because of the scare card.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yea this is bad advice. I guess an AJ would call the river.

Spicymoose · #8 11-13-2005, 08:50 AM

The KK is a perfect scarecard for him to bluff you out of your original overpair. Unless he is really passive, I think you must call. Oh, and no way do you check this river. Value bet relentlessly.

#9 11-13-2005, 09:09 AM

Against an aggressive, tricky opponent, I check, because I hate getting bluff-raised in this spot, and it might induce a bluff. Against a passive opponent, I value bet, of course.

SA125 · #10 11-13-2005, 11:03 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Oh, and no way do you check this river. Value bet relentlessly.

[/ QUOTE ]

The math in spots like this says a lot. If you pay off, you have to win twice to equal the 2 bets lost to one raise. Taking it a step further, you have to win 1 bet 7 times out of 10 if you pay off 3 times just to show a 1 bet profit. Win 7, lose 6.

Take into account the many times your bet isn't called and you see how just betting doesn't guarantee a profit if you pay off as little as 1/3 of the time.

I think with a hand you want to show down, you have to check more often to induce a bluff bet or save bets when it's equally likely that you'd either be raised by a better one or called by a worse one.

Which is why relentlessly betting thin with the marginal hands that are easily released are usually the ones you'll make the most money from. Then it's only a 51% prop on the river and you'll collect from calling station's by the truck load.