Why Poker. Why Now?

[Dan Mezick]

Poker certainly has its virtues. But until quite recently, explaining poker’s profound greatness to casual observers was difficult-- at best. Suddenly, everyone (and their mother) seems not just interested, but downright fascinated with the game of no-limit tournament poker.

We could all point to the WPT and say “that’s the reason” and certainly the WPT show is innovative and influential. Yet a TV show dies an ugly death without a steady audience, and that is what the WPT show has generated- a steady and growing, huge audience.

Now, it’s natural to ask: why?

You can’t just say it’s the format, or the prize money, or the “whatever” of the WPT show, because even the WSOP stuff on ESPN is experiencing a renaissance of audience interest. WSOP poker on TV is not a new concept, and certainly the hole-card camera is interesting, but does not fully explain poker’s sudden “major mindshare” in the American psyche.

In some kind of very basic way, tournament poker suddenly appeals to a very wide audience. What gives here?

I believe poker will remain popular for much, much longer than observers expect. As a matter of fact, I suspect poker’s popularity is just getting started.

Many observers think quite the opposite—that we are in a “poker bubble” and the growth absolutely has to slow, taper off, etc.

I can see the contrarian logic of that conclusion, and that position.

Indeed, in a very real sense, the “poker bubble” school of thought has become the orthodox, conventional wisdom. As far as I can tell, not many observers are making hugely optimistic guesses about poker’s future growth. For example, I have not read too many observers (read: “none”) going out on a limb and saying that they expect the WSOP 10K NLHE event to get 3000+ players in 2005. This would represent about 100% growth over 2004. If it happens, it will be the 3rd running year of 100% growth in that event’s participation.

I’m interested in hearing from other observers who also think poker will continue to enjoy a 80, 90, or 100 percent growth rate in the coming years.

And specifically, why.