ENLIGHTEN ME, TELL ME I'M WRONG!

Here are the things that happened to me within 2 hour session 4 tabling 6-seater NL holdem 2/5 pounds! That accounts roughly for 600-800 hands!

Case A)

Within a space of 3 minutes I had

AKs raised from last position one caller from BB

flop AA2,

the guy is all-in, so am I

he had 22! 400 pounds gone!



I had KJ guy raised, I called

flop K9K

guy is all-in, so am I

he had 99

Case B

Add to that that in those 2 hours I flopped two lower sets vs. two higher sets!


Now if I calculate the odds right, CASE A SHOULD HAPPEN ONCE IN approx. 8600 TIMES (it should happen less often than flopping a straight flush). Yet it happened twice in 3 minutes. AND I HAD 3 STRAIGHT FLUSHES FLOPPED in my whole poker career.

CASE B should happen ONCE IN approx. ??? TIMES. Yet it happens daily 1-2x to me, had 7 of those in a week!

Combined odds of that in one 2-hour session are counted in MILLIONS to one.

Basically I shouldn't flop trips vs. set until Christmas 2009, yet I now one is waiting for me within 2-3 days and striaght flush is not.

I didn't even tilt with all that happening which is a small miracle in itself, and lost only 200 pounds in that entire session, but I can't see a way to look at those things as random.

So, set aside all this fix-bull, DISAPPROVE ME WITH MATH, TELL ME I'M WRONG, BECAUSE IN LIGHT OF THOSE ODDS, I don't see a single reason why I should continue, apart from the fact that the thing is fixed-equally for all and I still manage to make a profit!

For any random event that has non-zero probability, the probability that it will occur approaches 1 as the number of trials goes to infinity. So basically, the probability that an individual player has a particular run of strange cards in a particular span of hands goes to 1 as the number of total players and total hands played goes to infinity. Thus, if humanity plays poker long enough, there will be a span where some player flops a straight flush versus a better straight flush for 1000 straight hands because it is possible.

Back to your bad beat rantings, you had a bunch of relatively low probability events occur within a relatively small but not tiny span of hands. Let's assume no exaggeration on your part and not calculate out the probabilities and just assume that you saw a 10 million-1 session. Well, most poker sites deal out millions of hands per day. Add to that offline hands dealt and I wouldn't even want to speculate how many total holdem hands are dealt each year. Now add that up over the entire history of the game. Your session is practically certain to happen to someone. In fact, no matter how bad a particular session is, it is almost certain to have happened thousands of times before.

[ohnonotthat]

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In fact, no matter how bad a particular session is, it is almost certain to have happened thousands of times before.

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I can top that.

No matter how bad a session was it's almost a certainty that there have been 1,000s (or MILLIONS) of WORSE sessions in history.

You often hear people speak of never having been dealt a royal flush in "all their years" of playing - then getting two in a week.

HELLO ! ! !

Which of these two events are more of a longshot; a man getting 2 royals in his life - one at age 25 and one at age 75, OR one on his 50th birthday and one three days later.

- AH HA - Now it sinks in. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

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Or, as we have all heard (or said [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]) many times . . .

"The cards ran cold as hell all night, then come morning they got REALLY bad."

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I am therefore able to grant your request.

Please consider yourself enlightened; you are indeed wrong.

I shall now say for the 4,153rd (and final) time,

Online poker may or may not be rife with site-controlled cheating and/or manipulation by those whose knowledge of computer related sh1t far ecxeeds mine but PLEASE . . . Do you really think that either a site or a hacker would cheat in ways such as those you describe ?

- AK flopping trips but losing to a pocket pair when the latter flopps a full house ?

- Repeated occurences of set over set

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If YOU were willing AND able to cheat (I am not the latter and never will be the former) is this how you'd do it ?

I don't think so.

It's not how I (or any sensible person) would.

I'd set it so I (or my associates) got just a few more good hands than were due - AA 1/100 instead of 1/220, etc. - and so that these hands stood up a little more often than normal.

It's only in films where the mark gets quads and loses to a straight flush; when a beat this severe occurs in real life you can be doubly sure it was random.