Who Will Win The Election?

[Knockwurst]

While this has been discussed in other threads, I thought it would be interesting to gather people's prognostications in one thread. How do you think election night will play out? It seems like the middle states and Deep South except for Florida are solidly for Bush while the West Coast and New England/New York are solidly for Kerry. Anyone who says that either candidate will win in a landslide is deluding themselves. Can Kerry win without Florida? Can Bush win without Ohio and Florida? It seems as though there are more must win states for Bush ie. Florida, Ohio, West Virginia, Missouri. But I think Florida is a must win for Kerry. While I think it will be close, I think many of the close states will break Kerry's way as election day nears. I think it will be Kerry winning the popular vote by 1% and the electoral vote by about 50-60 votes.

Here are some links:

http://www.zogby.com/soundbites/ReadClips.dbm?ID=7779

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Elec...Projection.htm

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/cry...ctoratemap.php

http://online.wsj.com/public/resourc...04-an0726.html

[Wake up CALL]

Bush will win and quite handily.

[SinCityGuy]

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Bush will win and quite handily.

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Really?

I'm curious, what states do you think that Bush will win that Al Gore won in 2000?

[Wake up CALL]

[ QUOTE ]
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Bush will win and quite handily.

[/ QUOTE ]

Really?

I'm curious, what states do you think that Bush will win that Al Gore won in 2000?

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None, need he win any more states in 2004 than in 2000 to be elected quite handily?

[Nepa]

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None, need he win any more states in 2004 than in 2000 to be elected quite handily?

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He still got alittle work to do



Still alotta blue!

[Stu Pidasso]

This guy is pro Kerry, He updates his map daily, and according to him Bush is starting to gain ground.

Stu

[nicky g]

I agree. There is no way a liberal Massachussets senator will beat a "wartime" President. Plus Kerry has the charisma of a rotting corpse and his post convention bounce was negligible. And if all else fails, Bush will cheat. Kerry is toast.

[adios]

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Bush will cheat. Kerry is toast

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Like how so?

[cardcounter0]

Who ever Diebold says.

[riverflush]

It's a really mixed bag right now. The polls seem to favor Kerry in some key swing states, but Bush has stronger numbers in the "likely voters" category (registered vs. likely is a distinction).

I think Bush will win Florida...if 2002's election is any indicator, the Dem's have actually lost ground in that state. All the polls had Jeb ahead by a mere 2 or 3 points, and he won by a landslide 56-43 margin...and this was even after the 2000 election fiasco . The polls seem to be useless in that state. I think it's trending Bush.

What should really concern Kerry is:

1) Zero bump out of the convention, which is really unprecidented. Either voters have already made up their mind, or this covention was a massive dud.

2) Minimal bump for Edwards pick. This is also disturbing for Kerry, as it shows that (despite massive media hype) Edwards won't have much effect on the election at all. Contrast that to Cheney's negative public image, and you have a major lost opportunity.

3) Swift Boat/Cambodia lasting 20 days+ as a media story. Instead of getting out in front of this thing, Kerry sat back for nearly 3 weeks and didn't respond to the attack. Now, it's festered around and grown into a monster - and all Kerry can do is send threatening letters and lawsuit complaints? He should have jumped on it hard 3 weeks ago and called these guys out immediately. Make a big appearance where he thrashes these guys in a speech...and plays up his love for the country and service, etc. etc. He should have done that August 1, not August 24th.

With no bump from the convention, this Vietnam controversy can take away his 3% or 4% advantage in a heartbeat.