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  #1  
Old 12-31-2005, 12:04 AM
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Default Ravens vs Browns

Ravens are -3 against Cleveland. Cleveland is at home but can anyone find any reason not to bet the Ravens?
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  #2  
Old 12-31-2005, 01:54 AM
bills217 bills217 is offline
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Default Re: Ravens vs Browns

It's a meaningless Week 17 NFL game?

[ QUOTE ]
Cleveland is at home but can anyone find a reason not to bet the Ravens?

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
Cleveland is at home

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  #3  
Old 12-31-2005, 02:16 AM
Scruff Scruff is offline
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Default Re: Ravens vs Browns

I like to use the Football Outsiders Weighted DVOA ratings, I basically convert them to point spreads, factor in a home field advantage and adjust for injuries subjectively. It's worked out pretty well the last two seasons.

This week it works out to Baltimore -1.2. They do account for the fact that the Ravens have been playing better of late, though maybe not enough. Cleveland is 3-4 at home, and Baltimore hasn't won a road game all year - and my 'system' gets to the 1.2 using just a standard HFA.

You were asking for reasons not to take Baltimore, there you go . . .
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Old 12-31-2005, 02:21 AM
DougOzzzz DougOzzzz is offline
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Default Re: Ravens vs Browns

Fez thinks the Browns will be +3.5 by game time. So if you like the Ravens - take them now. If you like the Browns, then wait.
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  #5  
Old 12-31-2005, 02:22 AM
DougOzzzz DougOzzzz is offline
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Default Re: Ravens vs Browns

[ QUOTE ]
I like to use the Football Outsiders Weighted DVOA ratings, I basically convert them to point spreads, factor in a home field advantage and adjust for injuries subjectively. It's worked out pretty well the last two seasons.

This week it works out to Baltimore -1.2. They do account for the fact that the Ravens have been playing better of late, though maybe not enough. Cleveland is 3-4 at home, and Baltimore hasn't won a road game all year - and my 'system' gets to the 1.2 using just a standard HFA.

You were asking for reasons not to take Baltimore, there you go . . .

[/ QUOTE ]

I think Football Outsiders is a great site. I don't think their ratings are near perfect for predicting future results, though. Especially in the last week, where there are a plethora of other factors in play. I have no opinion on the right side of this game, though.
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  #6  
Old 12-31-2005, 02:33 AM
lastsamurai lastsamurai is offline
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Default Re: Ravens vs Browns

I like the ravens in this one. They are playing momentum for next year...

Baltimore is going to be one of my money teams next year....Keep an eye on them in 2006.
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  #7  
Old 12-31-2005, 02:47 AM
McGahee McGahee is offline
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Default Re: Ravens vs Browns

[ QUOTE ]
Ravens are -3 against Cleveland. Cleveland is at home but can anyone find any reason not to bet the Ravens?

[/ QUOTE ]

Kyle Boeller on the road - hey there's 2 reasons.
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