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  #1  
Old 12-30-2005, 12:39 AM
hemstock hemstock is offline
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Default Guy with a 4 to 1 chip lead settles for a split.

First place pays 10k, second place about 5.5k
This guy has almost 5 million in chips the other guy has less than 1.5, and he settles for a split, 7k for the low stack, the rest (~8.5) for him.
Does this make sense? Wasn't that stupid?
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  #2  
Old 12-30-2005, 12:44 AM
PartySNGer PartySNGer is offline
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Default Re: Guy with a 4 to 1 chip lead settles for a split.

I'm not 100% sure on the math, but since each player is guaranteed 5.5k, then that leaves the 4.5k difference between 1st and 2nd. The chip leader had 80% of the chips, so he should get 80% of the 4.5k + 5.5k (assuming similar talent). So he should have gotten a little over 9k, but he's not getting screwed as badly as you think, especially if he doesnt think he's a very good HU player.
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  #3  
Old 12-30-2005, 12:45 AM
orentha orentha is offline
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Default Re: Guy with a 4 to 1 chip lead settles for a split.

sounds dumb to me...

maybe he sucks at heads up or something. or didn't think he had a good chance against the other guy for some reason.
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  #4  
Old 12-30-2005, 12:58 AM
Schwartzy61 Schwartzy61 is offline
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Default Re: Guy with a 4 to 1 chip lead settles for a split.

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not 100% sure on the math, but since each player is guaranteed 5.5k, then that leaves the 4.5k difference between 1st and 2nd. The chip leader had 80% of the chips, so he should get 80% of the 4.5k + 5.5k (assuming similar talent). So he should have gotten a little over 9k, but he's not getting screwed as badly as you think, especially if he doesnt think he's a very good HU player.

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually it's not even 80% of the chips because he has almost 5 mil while the guy has somewhere between 1 and 1.5 million. So it's probably more like 70/30 or 2.5 to 1.

Using those numbers he's walking away with basically what his EV should probably be in that situation right? 70% of the 4.5k + 5.5k guaranteed = 8.65k.

I'm not sure if it was AS wrong as OP makes it out to be.

Then again I'm not a tourney player and from what I've read on the subject there is no point in making any deals, especially when you are ahead...
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  #5  
Old 12-30-2005, 01:52 PM
BigF BigF is offline
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Default Re: Guy with a 4 to 1 chip lead settles for a split.

[ QUOTE ]
sounds dumb to me...

maybe he sucks at heads up or something. or didn't think he had a good chance against the other guy for some reason.

[/ QUOTE ]

There's EV. Then there's CE(Certainty Equivalence).

It's not always a dumb move to settle for less than EV.
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  #6  
Old 12-30-2005, 01:59 PM
danzasmack danzasmack is offline
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Default Re: Guy with a 4 to 1 chip lead settles for a split.

OP,

also take time into consideration. Chip leader may have obligations.
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  #7  
Old 12-30-2005, 02:56 PM
pokergrader pokergrader is offline
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Default Re: Guy with a 4 to 1 chip lead settles for a split.

You also have to account for misclicks.
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  #8  
Old 12-30-2005, 03:59 PM
2+2 wannabe 2+2 wannabe is offline
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Default Re: Guy with a 4 to 1 chip lead settles for a split.

[ QUOTE ]
Then again I'm not a tourney player and from what I've read on the subject there is no point in making any deals, especially when you are ahead...

[/ QUOTE ]

Dr. Prof. Sir David Sklansky says deals are usually better for the chip leaders, relative to the ones who are behind
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  #9  
Old 12-30-2005, 04:07 PM
Phill S Phill S is offline
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Default Re: Guy with a 4 to 1 chip lead settles for a split.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Then again I'm not a tourney player and from what I've read on the subject there is no point in making any deals, especially when you are ahead...

[/ QUOTE ]

Dr. Prof. Sir David Sklansky says deals are usually better for the chip leaders, relative to the ones who are behind

[/ QUOTE ]

I find it hard to take advice on making deals from someone who hardly plays any tourneys.

Dont get me wrong, im sure there is plenty of good maths behind his statement, but it still sits wrong with me.
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  #10  
Old 12-30-2005, 04:48 PM
Beavis68 Beavis68 is offline
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Default Re: Guy with a 4 to 1 chip lead settles for a split.

Based on what I have read elsewhere, it he got about $500 less than a typical deal, not too bad.
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