Another KQs hand (with a big stack) - How’s my line?

Bay 101 – Tuesday’s $45+15 R/A, about 100 entries, 230+ rebuys, 98 add-ons, pays 18.

My table just picked up 3 new players after some other tables were broken down. Villain in this hand is one of the new ones, so I don’t have a read on his play. I am the table chip leader with about t16,000 (3 stacks of 100’s and 1 stack of 500’s) but Villain is very close to that as well. My table image is decent. I’ve shown down some pretty good hands. Also, my luck box is in overdrive as I’ve been flopping sets, straights and even a quad when I played my BB’s pocket 4’s against a shorty’s all-in.

Blinds 200/400 with 50 runners left.

Folded to me in MP with K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. I open raise for 3xbb or t1200. Villain in CO immediately reraises to t3000 even. The button and the blinds autofold and the action is back to me. I’m dominated by AK/AQ and a dog to the monster hands AA/KK/QQ. But I only need to call another t1800 in a pot that now has t4800, so I’m getting close to 3:1. I call and decide to see a flop. (Should this have been a fold?)

Pot is t6600 and the flop comes J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

<font color="red">Hero…? </font>

Stack sizes seem right for you to move in over a standard continuation bet from Villain. You've got 9 outs against KK/AA, 12 outs against QQ/AK/AQ (plus a good amount of fold equity against the latter two), and are even money to favored against AJ/TT/99/88. JJ is the worst case scenario, but that's unlikely and even there you aren't hopeless.

You have a strong hand, 2 over + flush draw.

Would Vilain re-raise with AJ, nope. so Vilain may have AA -10-10. Or AK/AQ. I would do a check raise (making it clear that my stack goes all-in on the turn whatever comes) to take it down on the flop. If he checks behind, he doesn't have AA-JJ and probably not AK or AQ, so you get a free card and know that he may have a mid-pocket pair or he missplayed JJ. I would lead the turn (pot size bet) if checked behind.

I don't like the call preflop. You're OOP with KQs against an unknown reraiser whose stack can cripple you. You're getting great odds, but playing correctly postflop is really hard. As you pointed out, many hands in villain's range have you crushed, and it could be expensive to find out if you're ahead.

This flop is about the best you can hope for. If he decides to bet too small again on the flop (&lt;1/2 pot), I'd call to try and hit the flush. Otherwise, this is a check/push to any reasonable-sized bet. The check/push line gets him to put some money in and then fold with TT, 99, AQ, AK, and some weird donkey hands. If we get called, we're very rarely a favorite (AJ?), but have decent outs.

I would call his re-raise without hesitation even though it's suspicious (why not 2400? why the extra 600 - seems to me he's gagging for a call) because a kind flop breaks him. I'd then check the flop and go all in unless he put in a monster raise first. Because of teh suspicious pre-flop re-raise, I'd put him on a premium pair which he could fold to an all-in bet on that board especially if check raised.

[ QUOTE ]
Stack sizes seem right for you to move in over a standard continuation bet from Villain. You've got 9 outs against KK/AA, 12 outs against QQ/AK/AQ (plus a good amount of fold equity against the latter two), and are even money to favored against AJ/TT/99/88. JJ is the worst case scenario, but that's unlikely and even there you aren't hopeless.

[/ QUOTE ]

Too late to edit, but I mis-read the hand, thought you were button and Villain was BB. Don't know where I got that from.... It's a little weak tight, but I think I toss this. You're getting good odds pre-flop, but there are a lot of trap situations, such as this one or a Q- or K- high flop, where you could end up committed to playing as a moderate to big dog. I'd like a call more if you knew anything about this player or thought you could outplay him well enough to make up for your positional disadvantage.

Let me see if I can clean up the hand history:

Blinds 200/400
Stacks: Hero(~16000) Villan(~15000)

Hero is MP2
Villan is CO

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">3 folds </font> , <font color="red">Hero raises t1200</font>,<font color="#666666"> 1 fold </font> , <font color="red">CO raises to t3000</font>,<font color="#666666"> 1 fold, SB folds, BB folds </font> , <font color="red">Hero calls t3000</font>.

Flop: (t6,600) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="blue"> (2 players)</font>
<font color="red">Hero bets t13,000 (all-in)</font>, <font color="red">CO calls t12,000 (all-in)</font>.

Turn: (t30,600) 10[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(2 players)
</font>

River: (t30,600) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(2 players)
</font>

Hero shows: K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] King-high flush

CO shows: A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] One pair - Aces

Okay, I figured that I had a strong draw and I was going to the mat with this hand. I would call any raise that CO makes, whether I bet or check raise. Given that, I thought that I would take position away from him and be aggressive, so I pushed.

Villain thought for about 10 seconds, called, and said, "Nice...hit your set, huh?".

I wasn't suprised when he turned over AA, but that turn card sure was all I needed.

Feedback on all street appreciated. I'm really interested in whether my flop push was too agg. I really felt I was going all-ion no matter what, so I might as well push first.

[jedinite]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm really interested in whether my flop push was too agg. I really felt I was going all-ion no matter what, so I might as well push first.

[/ QUOTE ]

Pretty standard line for me. Especially re: the thinking that if I'm going to the mat, I want to be leading and not calling.

If my opponent often delivers a standard continuation bet, I might check-raise all-in instead, but that's assuming that I can count on a bet of half-pot (~3000) or less, so that my check-raise is meaningful. If he's going to 2/3rds pot to pot on the cbet, I'll open push instead. We're on that marginal bubble here between leading with a push and going for the check-raise, so its pretty much read dependant / flip a coin.

In situations like this in terms of villain's stack size in relation to ours and the sizes of the blinds, generally what % of the time when villain reraises PF about 3x-4x the original raise do you see QQ+ from him? What about AK and AQ? Just from your guys' experiences.

[Masquerade]

I think there's a very small chance villain is bluffing. In fact I'd put him on a big pair JJ-AA. He's going to like this flop but perhaps not put you on diamonds until its too late.

I don't think there's much point betting big here as any good player is going to raise you (unless he has JJ when he might call) sufficiently that you dont have odds to call. Checking and calling is rather lame so that leaves the weak bet trying to get a cheap turn. If this works and the turn is a diamond you'll need strong nerves as he may well raise back hard if he has JJ or AA with the Ad.