six max odds question

[108suited]

Hi all,
I was reading a post about 6max NL earlier, and I made the following observation:

"In a full game, the distribution of high cards is likely to be higher when folded around to only six players left vs. a six max game. That's becuase after four players pass, the chances of high cards in the remaining hands in a typical full game would be higher. AA didn't fold, KK didn't, etc. Therefore, you might expect more big cards on average opening six handed in a full game, than if opening six handed in a six max game.

If this is true, it seems like it is relavent to correct 6 max strategy vs. playing in a full game when it's folded to the last six players, to a certain extent. "

I think some probablity numbers could be run to get a rough estimate of the how the card distribution is likely to be affected in a 6 max game vs. a full game. I found some assumptions for opening hands in a full game for the first four opponents. If all four opponents folded, there would be six left. And what I'm interested in is how the first four folds affects the likely hand distributions of the remaining six players in a full game, vs. what would be a likely hand distribution in a six max game.

For starting hands in the fist four positions, in a full game, I'll assume the following hands are called or raised:

AA, KK, QQ, JJ, TT 2.26%
AK, AQ, AJ, KQ, AT 6.03%
KJs, KTs, QJs, QTs, JTs 1.51%
KJ, KT, QJ, QT, JT 4.52%
99, 88, 77, 66 1.81%
Total % = 16.13%

Total = (100%-16.13%) 83.87% of the time it's folded by the first four positions.

Assumtions for opening six handed I can give as the following:

AA, KK, QQ, JJ, TT 2.26%
AK, AQ, AJ, KQ, AT 6.03%
KJs, KTs, QJs, QTs, JTs 1.51%
KJ, KT, QJ, QT, JT 4.52%
99, 88, 77, 66 1.81%
A9s, A8s, A7s, A6s, A5s, A4s, A3s, A2s 2.41%
T9s, 98s, 87s, 76s, 65s 1.51%
55, 44, 33, 22 1.51 1.81%

Total 21.86%




This seems like somewhat of a complex problem, and the information / assumptions I have provided could be used to provide different scenarios and analysis. If anyone is interested in running some math on this subject and / or providing more insight all help appreciated.

Thanks for your help.

[108suited]

Bump - Is this one too easy?

[PairTheBoard]

It's called the "bunching effect". Simulations have been done and all reports I've seen are that it is insignificant. Mason has written quite a bit about this I believe.

PairTheBoard