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  #11  
Old 03-19-2005, 05:30 PM
Mad Genius1 Mad Genius1 is offline
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Default Re: How much respect do I give this guy?

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this is a fold and its not close.

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It's definately close. UTG would have raised at some point with 44 or 99. Obviously he doesn't have 88 or K4/K9/K8. The only hand hero really has to worry about is AK. AK is probably the most likely hand but KQ, KJ and KT aren't out of the question as someone else pointed out. I do get a sense that UTG isn't sure about his hand until the river, where hero shows a lot of weakness.

I would probably still fold but this is definately not clear-cut.
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  #12  
Old 03-19-2005, 05:35 PM
flawless_victory flawless_victory is offline
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Default Re: How much respect do I give this guy?

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UTG would have raised at some point with 44 or 99.

[/ QUOTE ]SAYS WHO? i think he has one of these hands the majority of the time.
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  #13  
Old 03-19-2005, 05:41 PM
soah soah is offline
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Default Re: How much respect do I give this guy?

Remember the secion in Ciaffone/Reuben's book about beating the bully? There's one pretty nice quote in there along the lines of "Don't let the bully run you into the nuts." You see that the button is always raising when he has the button, and you figure KQ is in great shape againt him, so you call. Problem is that there's a rock who has limped in UTG, and you've seen him limp in previously with big hands. Do you really want to play KQ out of position against this guy in a raised pot?

I suppose your thinking was that the rock, being the rock that he is, would likely get out of the way if he didn't flop a huge hand, and you could just tangle with the moron on the button. Or if the rock came to life and you didn't have the nuts, you'd get away cheaply. But then your flop play makes no sense. You flop top pair, and checkraise the rock?! What are you hoping to accomplish there? Are you trying to make him fold (and if so, what hand do you put him on)? Trying to build a pot? Neither objective makes much sense with top pair/second kicker.

Your turn bet was awfully weak. About 1/4 pot it looks like. Once again, what are you trying to accomplish? On the river you fold. You've told UTG you have a king, and he doesn't care.
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  #14  
Old 03-19-2005, 05:43 PM
KaneKungFu123 KaneKungFu123 is offline
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Default Re: How much respect do I give this guy?

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UTG is a supertight old player

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Again. Its not even close.
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  #15  
Old 03-19-2005, 05:53 PM
soah soah is offline
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Default Re: How much respect do I give this guy?

[ QUOTE ]
It's definately close. UTG would have raised at some point with 44 or 99. Obviously he doesn't have 88 or K4/K9/K8. The only hand hero really has to worry about is AK. AK is probably the most likely hand but KQ, KJ and KT aren't out of the question as someone else pointed out. I do get a sense that UTG isn't sure about his hand until the river, where hero shows a lot of weakness.

I would probably still fold but this is definately not clear-cut.

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You are making an awful lot of assumptions which are not based on any of the information provided. Who says UTG would have raised at some point with a set? It's very plausible that he was planning to let Hero bet out on the turn to pot commit himself, and then he could push to drive out the button (who may be chasing a flush). But when he fills up he decides to let the button overcall drawing dead instead. Why do you think that KQ/KJ/KT are all likely hands for him? We were told that this guy seems to be aware of positional considerations, and that he is "supertight." How many "supertight" players limp UTG with KT? Would he call a checkraise from a solid player with top pair and a trash kicker? Would he push the river with such a hand after Hero has already represented strong hand as well? If he is that confident that he has Hero beaten, and does not have a full house, then why wouldn't he raise the turn to avoid letting the button draw at a flush cheaply?
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  #16  
Old 03-19-2005, 06:02 PM
fsuplayer fsuplayer is offline
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Default Re: How much respect do I give this guy?

why are you CRing a tight UTG's bet into a pfr?

but since you did, once he calls, you are in bad shape, and the K on the turn doesnt change much..

as it was, this is a very easy fold w/o a big read.

so i pretty much agree w KangFu on this one.
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  #17  
Old 03-19-2005, 06:03 PM
Mad Genius1 Mad Genius1 is offline
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Default Re: How much respect do I give this guy?

You are right. I made a mental error forgetting that a set would have filled up on the turn. My thinking was that on the turn, with a set UTG would almost be forced to raise given that button is most likely on the flush draw. But that's not the case.

There is still a possibility that he has KT/KJ though. How do I know that? Because hero says that UTG previously played a big pot with KT. I do agree that it would be unlikely that a tight player called a flop raise with just TPNK but I can see him having KT or KJ of diamonds. Not likely, which is why I said I would fold as well, but a small chance nevertheless.
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  #18  
Old 03-19-2005, 06:18 PM
soah soah is offline
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Default Re: How much respect do I give this guy?

[ QUOTE ]
There is still a possibility that he has KT/KJ though. How do I know that? Because hero says that UTG previously played a big pot with KT.

[/ QUOTE ]

The full quote was "I've seen him play K10 suited for a decent pot, but only with position." From that I infer that Hero does not believe this player would be playing KT from UTG. Is it possible that Hero's read was wrong? Of course. But I'm just going by what was posted.
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  #19  
Old 03-19-2005, 06:44 PM
FoxwoodsFiend FoxwoodsFiend is offline
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Default Re: How much respect do I give this guy?

[ QUOTE ]
why are you CRing a tight UTG's bet into a pfr?


[/ QUOTE ]
Because I don't feel like check-folding for a 35 dollar bet into a 145 dollar pot when I'm pretty positive I have the button beat and feel I can get UTG out of this pot. Are you trying to tell me that pushing off a tight player who weak leads into two players with a check-raise is inadvisable? I was ready to slow down/give up the hand once they both called, but hitting trips on the turn made me reconsider my line.
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  #20  
Old 03-19-2005, 06:52 PM
fsuplayer fsuplayer is offline
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Default Re: How much respect do I give this guy?

ok, ill give you the flop CR, but what does trips do for you, other than tell you that both players dont have a king now?

it now makes UTG more likely to have a set turned house, esp. when he moves in on the river.
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