AA - faced with an all in on turn

[Tropex]

I've learned it the hard way with overpairs recently that when you get reraised at these limits, one pair is beat like 90% of the time ;D

[jacknine]

I think this is where that one line in Super/System applies to the SSNL game. With Aces, be happy taking a small pot or be willing to lose a big one.
So, make a big re-raise preflop. Take those 5 bucks or whatever it is and don't think twice about it. Otherwise, you'll end up having to pay someone off big time or make that sort of laydown not many people are capable of.

[GrunchCan]

I disagree with this assesment. 50% of the time he has T9s, 25% of the time he flopped a straight, 25% of the time he has something really stupid.

i'm guessing he had a set, and probably fold, unless he has proven to be LAG

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I disagree with this assesment. 50% of the time he has T9s, 25% of the time he flopped a straight, 25% of the time he has something really stupid.

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Are you kidding?!

50% of the time he has T9???
25% of the time he flopped [turned] a straight!?
25% of the time he has something "really stupid"?

How often does an EP PF raise 3xbb signify T9 or J8?!

Far less than PP's, I'm sure of it. He's either got a set, or an overpair (underpair to you). More likely he's got an overpair and you are ahead.

So, of the "50%" of the time he has two pairs...what do you do knowing that 16% of the time you will hit aces up or better on the river?

I think Super System would advocate folding here. I would fold, unless I'm damn sure I have the guy beaten.

[GrunchCan]

[ QUOTE ]
How often does an EP PF raise 3xbb signify T9 or J8?!

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That's not the right question.

Villan opened the pot preflop. If it's folded to villan in late position and he holds T9s he'll raise 85% of the time (I would too). If he holds J8, somewhat less often, but he will still raise (I would raise or fold, btw).

The question isn't "what does a PFR to 3x represent?" That puts your opponent on a too-rigid range preflop. The question is, "given the action on every street and the board, what is my opponent's range?"

The turn looked like it improved the opponent's hand. The turn wasn't flush, so that means either the opponent has a 9 or cards around it. But the opponent just called a stiff flop bet. Whhat would an opponent call a stiff bet with on that low of a flop that an offsuit 9 would improve? T9. This action looks exactly like T9 to me if the opponent overvalued his flopped top pair, which is typical of opponents.