easy kk fold??? 3 to 1 on my money - Page 2

theweatherman · #11 12-06-2005, 03:50 PM

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if you have a solid read, you have a solid read most likely he won't have KK, since then all the kings would be out. And also, since he is a decent player, he won't go all-in w/ QQ. The only hand left is AA. Good read, and good fold.

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Huh? I like to go Allin with QQ most of the time, I dont know about the rest of you. This really isnt a good read, but a lucky one. A gut feeling of "he has AA" is a terrible reason to throw away KK pf, esspecially with the odds your getting.

Your claim that the only hand left that goes allin there is AA is wrong imo. I see QQ or better, including AKs your losing to one of these and getting 3-1 to play. Insta call.

Folding here is terrible. Your "great read" was merely a lucky guess and I doubt you'll make many +ev plays based on this form of desicion making.

wdeadwyler · #12 12-06-2005, 03:57 PM

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i show kings and fold, utg shows aa mp3 shows jj. when you know youre beat, you know youre beat, so dont tell me to stop, its not crap it was a perfect read.

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No, it was a crap read. The entire forum here has told you that you playe poorly (raising half your stack and then folding the rest) because you DID play poorly. If you are so confident in your hand reading skills that you can confidently lay down KK here go take a loan and start playing 10k no limit. Until then have some humility, realize you made a crappy fold for horrible, misguided reasons (do you even know the math here to make this fold correct, I dont), and get over yourself.

the machine · #13 12-06-2005, 04:41 PM

75 out of 225 is not half my stack, im a 3.8 to 1 underdog to aa with jj i nthe hand. pot is giving me 3 to one to call. if i call 150 more from mp3's all in i put 75 into the main pot and 75 into the side pot. if i lose against aa but beat jj i win how much...... 150. its a break even bet with no positive expectation because thats all i can make from the side pot, so in other words to make money off the hand i have to beat the aa. i fold, keep 150, or call and beat jj and my stack stays at 150. if i cover the second all in i call imediatley. i dont think there is enough in the side pot to make the call. no one has touched on that yet. and if you think kk is not a hand to fold at 1-2 then you have some serious thinking to do. and its not about me being full of myself. i didnt post this to have anyone say good fold. i posted to see if anyone thinks that the line of thought given pot odds and resonable hands makes sense. to me it does, to others at the table it did, maybe to you it doesnt

the machine · #14 12-06-2005, 04:47 PM

in my original post i specifically said utg was a very rational player. not spectacular but thought many things through. now given this and given the amount of money in the pot and the fact is went raise reraise reraise and an all in i highly doubt that a rational player here has qq or ak suited. there is not a chance he is pushing with anything less then kk and since i have 2 of them it makes kk highly unlikely. i dont know how many good players push raises and reraises after they raised pf with qq or ak suit. if you know where these games are please PM me and let me know and i will be there in a heart beat. they can pay for my trip. all IMO

wdeadwyler · #15 12-06-2005, 04:48 PM

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75 out of 225 is not half my stack, im a 3.8 to 1 underdog to aa with jj i nthe hand. pot is giving me 3 to one to call. if i call 150 more from mp3's all in i put 75 into the main pot and 75 into the side pot. if i lose against aa but beat jj i win how much...... 150. its a break even bet with no positive expectation because thats all i can make from the side pot, so in other words to make money off the hand i have to beat the aa. i fold, keep 150, or call and beat jj and my stack stays at 150. if i cover the second all in i call imediatley. i dont think there is enough in the side pot to make the call. no one has touched on that yet. and if you think kk is not a hand to fold at 1-2 then you have some serious thinking to do. and its not about me being full of myself. i didnt post this to have anyone say good fold. i posted to see if anyone thinks that the line of thought given pot odds and resonable hands makes sense. to me it does, to others at the table it did, maybe to you it doesnt

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I thought you had 150, I see now you didnt, my mistake.

Folding KK at 1-2 live with <300bb without convincing evidence (which I do not feel is present) is a -EV decision that you are free to make , just know that the majority of respectable posters (which I may or may not be) disagree with the aforementioned decision. At some point you will do this, and villain will have 1010. I agree that if you could make UTG's hand range only AA then this is an easy fold, you cannot make this read. Your typical UTG has AKs, KK, AA, QQ, JJ, 1010, and maybe even some other random garbage here. Your KK is +EV against that range. I disagree with your analysis and conclusions. If you can demonstrate to me mathematically how sure you were here and then use the pot odds to prove your fold was good (please use hand ranges and pokerstove), then I MIGHT consider it, but as your posts so far stand, and what I perceive as your understanding of the game, I am extremely skeptical.

Edited: I agree you do not call to chop, but nothing about your reads indicates that you are chopping here x% of the time (I do not know how to carry out the proper analysis here) and that this fold is right against villains hand range (based on your reads). Please enlighten me.

the machine · #16 12-06-2005, 04:49 PM

you dont call for a chop esp when there is a good chance you are beat. only hand im ahead of here logically is qq which is so unlikely given the player and they way ive been playing.

#17 12-06-2005, 04:53 PM

If you think UTG as AA and MP3 has Ax, then neither has good odds to improve so your odds may be a bit better than 3.8 to 1. You'd be way ahead of MP3 based on this read, with a chance sucking out on UTG and taking the whole pot.

If you were heads up with UTG and he put you all in I think you could make this laydown and feel good based on your read, but you had pretty good odds to call here if you felt a read of AA and Ax were strong.

the machine · #18 12-06-2005, 04:57 PM

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I thought you had 150, I see now you didnt, my mistake.

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this was my whole point about the post my stack size post raise and amounts needed to be called into each pot. plus i dont get into pokerstove and all that and i understand utg typical ranges. hes seen me play and i have raised 4 pots pf in 4 hours. he knows im tight tonight and i also have seen his play. he hasnt gotten out of line once. my whole thing was is it a weird fold with kk because of the side pot. do you fold if you see utg and mp3 hands is my basic question. im in a break even with the side IF i win and i have a chance to beat the aa. i think the call has -EV because of the break even fact. if i had 400 behind pf then 325 after my raise i beat mp3 in there with my stack. so with my relative stack do you agree more with the fold? do you fold if you see utg aa as well as mp3 jj?

the machine · #19 12-06-2005, 04:59 PM

ax could have been everything. at worst i though aq suit because he was so bad.

wdeadwyler · #20 12-06-2005, 05:04 PM

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I thought you had 150, I see now you didnt, my mistake.

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this was my whole point about the post my stack size post raise and amounts needed to be called into each pot. plus i dont get into pokerstove and all that and i understand utg typical ranges. hes seen me play and i have raised 4 pots pf in 4 hours. he knows im tight tonight and i also have seen his play. he hasnt gotten out of line once. my whole thing was is it a weird fold with kk because of the side pot. do you fold if you see utg and mp3 hands is my basic question. im in a break even with the side IF i win and i have a chance to beat the aa. i think the call has -EV because of the break even fact. if i had 400 behind pf then 325 after my raise i beat mp3 in there with my stack. so with my relative stack do you agree more with the fold? do you fold if you see utg aa as well as mp3 jj?

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Hmmm, I see the point of your post now. For the record, I dont fold at all, I lose my stack if UTG has AA. As for your other point, if we assume that you will break even by stacking MP 4/5 of the time, and suckout on UTG 1/5 of the time, then is this a neutral ev call? (This analysis is very rudimentary and poor). I still maintain UTG does not have AA 100% of the time, so I guess that would tip this to a call.

Someone please correct my analysis.