Can i Push this?

[TWINUNO]

This was before blind posted
Is this instant?
Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t100 (7 handed) converter

UTG (t1410)
MP1 (t1190)
MP2 (t2500)
CO (t1405)
Button (t435)
Hero (t700)
BB (t360)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">6 folds</font>.

Final Pot: t150

[usmhot]

Given your stack, I'd say you've been calling / pushing this sort of preflop hand already.

For me this is an easy fold. Best odds you've got are about 5:1 to get another K on the flop. Plus you're totally out of position on the post flop action - maybe at CO you could call depending on what the other players are representing and how they've played so far.

Don't be fooled by the fact that you're suited - you're odds on hitting the flush are about 25:1 (maybe my maths is wrong here - but its definitely not going to be better than that - could someone cofirm??).

[waffle]

I did ICM calculations.. seems to be a SLIGHTLY profitable push no matter your opponent's calling standards. Your ICM estimated prize pool equity might be a little bit too optimistic for the case where you are called and lost.. I don't know [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img]

EV FOLD = 0.917 buyins

EV CALL LOSE = 0.496 buyins
EV CALL WIN = 1.436 buyins

EV STEAL = 1.111 buyins

fold
0.92 buyins

push into 10% hands caller
.90 * (0.1111) + .10 * (.3348 * 0.1436 + (1-.3348) * 0.0496)
1.08 buyins

push into 25% hands caller
.75 * (0.1111) + .25 * (.39624 * 0.1436 + (1-.39624) * 0.0496)
1.05 buyins

push into 50% hands caller
.50 * (0.1111) + .50 * (.4575 * 0.1436 + (1-.4575) * 0.0496)
1.02 buyins

push into 75% hands caller
.25 * (0.1111) + .75 * (.50996 * 0.1436 + (1-.50996) * 0.0496)
1.01 buyins

push into 100% hands caller
.5488 * 0.1436 + (1 - .5488) * 0.0496
1.01 buyins

[brimstone1]

I'd push this at a speed I've never pushed before.

[Isura]

[ QUOTE ]
Given your stack, I'd say you've been calling / pushing this sort of preflop hand already.

For me this is an easy fold. Best odds you've got are about 5:1 to get another K on the flop. Plus you're totally out of position on the post flop action - maybe at CO you could call depending on what the other players are representing and how they've played so far.

Don't be fooled by the fact that you're suited - you're odds on hitting the flush are about 25:1 (maybe my maths is wrong here - but its definitely not going to be better than that - could someone cofirm??).

[/ QUOTE ]

What about the possibility that villain folds?

[usmhot]

Still don't like the pot odds.
I'd need a good read on the villian - but given he's the lowest on chips I'm guessing he'd call the push.
I'd prefer to fold on this and hope for a better hand with good pot odds before the BB comes back to me.

[vinyard]

I am pushing this (and a lot worse) very quickly. I am likely pushing top 40% of hands here with the possibility of more if I have any sort of read on the BB that would indicate that he isn't calling with any two.

[Jeoke]

I'm as happy as a puppy dog when i see everyone fold to me. then i push supaquickly