What do you do here?

[joeblo]

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t30 (10 handed) converter



Button (t1240)
SB (t715)
BB (t770)
UTG (t980)
UTG+1 (t185)
Hero (t785)
MP1 (t850)
MP2 (t600)
MP3 (t1090)
CO (t785)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+2 with 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls t30, Hero calls t30, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP3 calls t30, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (t150) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">BB bets t30</font>, UTG+1 calls t30, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t200</font>, MP3 folds, SB folds, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises to t740 (All-In)</font>



PP 20+2, and no reads on the villian.

[cha59]

Tough spot with no reads.
BB could have any two cards - 2 pair, a set, A8, 56 or nothing at all. (I see plays like this with no hand frequently)
If I feel like gambling I call.
If I feel like battling the rest of the game with 535 in chips I fold.

[diconoclastx]

I would raise this pf...
It looks like you are beat by at least two pair, so fold.

[MegaBet]

I would call. There are no flushes or straights out there, and you'd have thought someone would raise preflop with 10s or higher. If they hit a set, so be it, but it doesn't look that was by the all-in raise. They would want to slow play it.

CALL.

[joeblo]

Mega, the thing that made this hand sooo confusing for me was the fact that he min bet the flop.

I couldnt see what he was min betting with except for something like A5 or 56 or some soft of a draw.

I thought about what he could be holding for a bit and ended up calling.

He showed 44 and I was left with 15 chips. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

I don't know if I thought too much about the hand and ended up overvaluing my hand. I guess I'll chalk it up to a lesson learned and know better then to risk the tourney with marginal holdings.

[TStokes]

[ QUOTE ]
I would raise this pf...


[/ QUOTE ]

seriously?

[Jeoke]

[ QUOTE ]

If I feel like gambling I call.
If I feel like battling the rest of the game with 535 in chips I fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm quite sure there is a better solution then this... I'm very curious how it should actually be played

[morgan180]

You just have to run through the hands that the BB would be holding that beat you here. Then make your best estimate based on the probability of each holding. Put that together with the betting patterns and come to a conclusion that you can work against.

What are the types of hands that the BB would just check here that he wouldn't raise against 4 people in the pot but that would then cause him to bet and re-raise all-in on this flop.

I think hands like 33, 44-66 are likely (77/88 and up probably would have raised), I think you'll see A8/K8 here as well. I don't think you'll see any big cards/big pairs as they would have raised PF to thin the field. You have to do the math for the probability of each, but obviously unpaired hands are more common than paired hands.

Looking strictly at pot odds you have to put in your remaining 555 for a pot of 1150 so you're getting better than 2:1. Now you just have to figure out the likely hood that he is on a hand that can beat you.

All in all, I probably call here. You can't ask for a better board for your hand and if you lose to a set fire up another. Often enough you'll be up against A8/K8 55-66 to make it worth it. You should make a note that the BB is a little tricky since most people will check a set on the flop and he min-bet it which looks like a weak attempt to pick up the pot with a marginal holding. I really like this play on his part because it is definitely an unusual way to play a set.


JMHO

[allinadam]

I'm going to attempt a Harrington style analysis.

What do you think his likely holdings are? I would say 2 pr., trips, and top pair. I suppose he could be bluffing, but that doesn't seem likely here.

Let's say he was bluffing 10% of the time with no pair. You will win on average maybe 90% of the time. 10%*90%=9%

Let's say he has a pair on the board, most likely top pair, about 20% of the time. You will win about 70% of the time (he has 7 outs twice). 70%*20%=14%

Let's say he has two pair 60% of the time. In that case you win about 20% of the time. (When you catch 2 of the remaining 9's, or the board pairs the card that doesn't fill him up. You have 5 outs twice) 60%*20%=12%

Let's say he has trips 10% of the time. In that case you win a little under 10% of the time. (2 outs twice) 1%

1%+12+14+9=36%

You are getting about 1.8 to 1 from the pot.(330/410+1=1.8)
Therefore, according to this analysis, it's a call by a nose, but it's so close I wouldn't fault folding.

This is assuming my analysis is not faulty. The percentages I assigned to each likely holding was based on my read of the hand and may be incorrect. Please help us if I messed up somewhere.

[joeblo]

morgan180,

I ran through the hands he can possibly have and what kinds of hands that he would call from the blind with and min bet the flop with. I couldn't see a guy who hit his set or even 2 pair min bet the flop like that. His min bet play was pretty trick. I might have to add that to my arsenal. I wasnt sure if my call was good or not. Seems like it can go either way. I just hate pretty much busting out so early with such marginal holdings.