(109) Bubble Fun with Raptor

[caretaker1]

If your read is that BB will call any 2 and pusher is raising with a decent hand, this should be an easy fold.

[Degen]

super dooper insta fast call

[Degen]

[ QUOTE ]
icm clearly states that its -ev to call here

[/ QUOTE ]

Further validation for my ongoing decision not to incorporate ICM or SNGPT into my game in a big way.

I'd be interested to see some before and after ROI numbers for people who have drastically changed their methods with these 'tools'

This is one of the easiest calls I've ever seen. No way in hell that short stack is going to call with a freeroll to get into the money...i put shorties calling range here at the top ten hands, at the widest.

However if the pusher has any clue at all, he's pushing AT LEAST the top 40-60%...how you do not equate that situation to a super insta call is beyond me.

CALL CALL CALL CALL insta CALL

[Nicholasp27]

well i thought this was an easy fold; surprised to see the poll skew so strongly toward call

i'd rather let bb coin-flip for his stack than have me coin-flip for my stack

let's see...

if i call, then roughly 50% of the time, +/- 20% i'm out of the tourney in 4th

if i fold, then roughly 50% of the time bb is out of the tourney in 4th and i'm itm

i think my odds of winning/placing are better when bb doubles up and i'm shorty than when i'm out of the tourney...


i also think calling would have to be pretty largely -ev icm-wise...at least -.7 or more...and sngpt wouldn't even take into account the fact that bb is calling with a huge % of hands here, which makes it even more -ev to call and allow bb to fold and freeroll into the money

i think this is a classic instance of the situation being more important than the cards u hold...u have an extremely tight calling range here, like aa/kk tight

[durron597]

[ QUOTE ]
i think this has to be one of the most insanely marginal decisions, its kind of akin to making a post on whether or not to choose heads or tails, maybe the reasoning behind the decision is helpful for improvement in this case but the actual decision pretty much makes no difference.

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I agree with this, for what my insanely marginal opinion is worth [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

ICM says Call is -ev ... right.
But why do You say that BB must call that push almost with any two???
According to the SNGPT:
Asuuming BB is pushing 22+,A2+,K2+,Q2s+,Q6o+,J7s+,
(really loose range)
To gain +0,2% EV BB must have:
Call hands: 22+,A2+,K9o+,K8s+,QJs (26%) (+0,2%)

May be I am missing smth. But I always thought that calling with ATC on BB is + ev when you have less than 2 BB...
And SNGPT proved that.
When SNG authority says quite different that confuses me
Please explain your logic.

TY

[wuwei]

[ QUOTE ]
i folded because i felt that big blind was going to call with any 2, and im willing to let him do that then start shovebotting to get back into the game if needed.

[/ QUOTE ]

My play here varies from STT to STT, but I imagine I call most of the time. These days (in the $55s), I feel my opponents have opened up their calling standards enough that I'm not as confident about shovebotting myself back into the game if the BB doubles up.

[fnord_too]

I'm going to go against the prevailing oppinion of poster I pay a lot of attention to and probably call here. (I think it is pretty close though.) I really should do some math, but I am feeling too beat up after this weekend to. Part of my thinking is the BB taking a 40/60 shot here is not so great for me. Against any ace, any pair AQo is close to a 60/40 favorite (I think his range is slightly different than that, but I think 60/40 against the real range is pretty close).

Ok, here is some quick and dirty math with no ICM:

I call, 60% I have 2850ish and there are two short stacks, 40% I am out.
I fold, I have 1100, and 40% of the time I am in 4th with about halve the stack of 3'd, the other 60% I am in third with 1/4 the stack of second.

I really should ICM those, maybe later.

[Roman]

I instacall... this is exactly why pushbotting works so well, how can you fold this?

[Nicholasp27]

arhz,

the bb only has 645, or just a tad over 2bbs, after posting this bb

he doesn't have 945 anymore