I feel ashamed for not raising with my no-draw ten-high.

[Wynton]

I probably bet the flop about 30% of the time, but regret not doing it more. On the other hand, I bet the turn about 90% of the time.

But do you really think a check/raise on the turn is a value move? I understand making the move as a bluff (though I'd think that's hard to pull off), but value?

[Grisgra]

Joking about the raising-for-value thing [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]. But I think it might make more money than betting the turn, as even a loose-passive will almost always take a shot from the button after the flop AND turn have been checked through.

[krishanleong]

[ QUOTE ]
I bet this turn almost 100% of the time.

-Mike

[/ QUOTE ]

Absolutely. I would also bet if the turn had been a small blank.

Krishan

[krishanleong]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Button is a loose-passive type, bit of a slowplayer as many loose-passives are, also a big time calling station.

[/ QUOTE ]

c/r your T high would be pretty awful given that read

I bet the flop 90% of the time, and the turn maybe 30%

[/ QUOTE ]

Can you give more details on your thinking? About both the flop bet (which I make maybe 25% of the time) and the turn bet which I think is super easy given noone seems interested and the top card paired.

Krishan

[Wynton]

Doh, I should have gotten the joke. Just goes to show you how little confidence I have in my ability to figure short-handed tables out right now.

So if this check/raise is a bluff, how often do you think it might succeed? One reason the turn lead bet seems good is because someone might suspect that you checked the flop hoping for a check/raise. But how likely is it that someone will think you checked through twice with a Q, or with even an underpair? Seems like just betting out is much higher EV.

[Grisgra]

[ QUOTE ]
So if this check/raise is a bluff, how often do you think it might succeed?

[/ QUOTE ]

Haven't done it often to know, but unless the button has a weak ace, I can't see him calling the turn, and he might not call the river either. With a weak ace, he might call the turn and the river anyway. So basically I see no holding on his part where he folds to my turn bet but not to my turn raise. Obviously I invest more money with the turn raise, but I earn another bet in there as well -- I guess the turn raise is best if it'll work 50%+ of the time. Whether it will, I dunno!

[krishanleong]

[ QUOTE ]
Doh, I should have gotten the joke. Just goes to show you how little confidence I have in my ability to figure short-handed tables out right now.

So if this check/raise is a bluff, how often do you think it might succeed? One reason the turn lead bet seems good is because someone might suspect that you checked the flop hoping for a check/raise. But how likely is it that someone will think you checked through twice with a Q, or with even an underpair? Seems like just betting out is much higher EV.

[/ QUOTE ]

Your thinking is correct. Betting out is vastly superior to check-raise bluffing.

Krishan

[tolbiny]

"So if this check/raise is a bluff, how often do you think it might succeed? One reason the turn lead bet seems good is because someone might suspect that you checked the flop hoping for a check/raise. But how likely is it that someone will think you checked through twice with a Q, or with even an underpair? Seems like just betting out is much higher EV."

He is loose passive- he open limped on the button- ie he stinks and is not a thinking player. When he gets check raised on the turn he thinks- oh crap i just got caught stealing. And folds. He doesn't think "what could the BB have that he check check/r with here?".
It also puts one more BB in the pot (though it risks two to win it so it has to work a good % of the time).

[7duceoff]

So assuming LP button calls your turn bet, what % of the time is it correct EV to bet the river when a brick hits?

[tolbiny]

are you asking when you bet out and get called, or when your c/r gets called?