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  #1  
Old 12-30-2005, 07:33 AM
Jake (The Snake) Jake (The Snake) is offline
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Default Punishing Autopilot TAGs

So, recently I was able to test something that I have been thinking about a bit. The situation occurs when you are heads up and out of position against a TAG. I started writing down a bunch of EV calcs and figured I might as well post it:

All fold to MP2 who raises. All fold to Hero in the BB who calls with Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. The flop comes
J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Hero checks, and MP2 bets.

Now, before you fold or call and c/f the turn in situations like this, consider how often you will get your opponent to fold to a checkraise. A typical range for this TAG might be 77+, A8s+, AT+, KTs+, KJ+, QTs+, JTs. We will assume that TAG calls or raises your checkraise with all sets and pairs jack or better, folds now with everything else 40% of the time, and calls but check/folds the turn with everything else 60% of the time unless he hits*. We will also assume we give up if it gets to the river and will ignore times when we hit.

Altogether, we end up winning right away about 24%, win on the turn 26%, and lose 50% of the time (to figure this out you need to do math on the combos and how often villain hits on the turn). Further, we will assume that TAG waits until the turn to raise his pair or better 50% of the time. This breaks the 50% loss down into 20% and 30% (it’s not equal because part of that 50% comes from when villain hits on the turn).

The pot is currently 5.5 SB. So if the above estimate is true, we

win 5.5 SB 24% = 1.32
win 6.5 SB 26% = 1.69
lose 2 SB 20% = (.40)
lose 4 SB 30% = (1.20)

For an EV of 1.41 SB, which is a ton to be giving up. Remember, we didn’t even consider the times when we hit ourselves. So it appears that checkraising against TAGs who are unwilling to go to the river with ace high can be VERY profitable.

In my opinion, this kind of strategy should work great against most TAGs, especially the multi-tabling bonus whores who really do not know what they're doing. They know checkraises mean strong hands, so they fold and move on. You might even be able to pull it off multiple times before they catch on.

Clearly this play can be used more often in shorthanded games. In full games, you should probably be careful to make sure you aren't doing this against an UTG raiser, for example, because their hand range is too restricted to hands that aren't folding. However, I certainly think there are certainly situations where doing this can be very profitable.

Some things to look for:

1. How often the TAG folds and any history you have with him.
2. The board texture. You are less/more likely to get folds on certain boards.
3. The TAGs hand range. What position is he in, what was the preflop action like?
4. Hero's hand. Is it possible you are ahead or will pull ahead?

And if you need one more reason to do this, remember that bluffing is fun. Now just don't do it against me [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img] .

I know this post is nothing new, but it’s been a while since I saw a post concerned with this specifically and I wonder how much most small stakes readers use this as a weapon. I also wonder how far off my assumptions are for the “average” TAG.

Some more good reads related to this are this Ed Miller article from the 2+2 Internet Magazine and this Ulysses thread from the HUSH archive. Both links have relevant examples as well.


* I define “hitting” as any pair or straight/flush draw.
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  #2  
Old 12-30-2005, 08:55 AM
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Default Re: Punishing Autopilot TAGs

I like your thinking. I see that the Tags I have semibluffed against mainly fold after another additional bet on the turn.

But how will the EV calculations change if you call and C/R the turn as a bluff? I would like to bluff on this street instead, as most players fold capacity is larger even if they do sometimes call and fold the river for an additional bet. Or maybe this is more a game against the thight-weak ones.
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  #3  
Old 12-30-2005, 09:00 AM
SNOWBALL138 SNOWBALL138 is offline
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Default Re: Punishing Autopilot TAGs

I've been seeing a lot of this at AP, and now the roaches there are 3 betting king high. C/R bluffs are cute, but unsustainable as a general practice because they are so expensive when they fail. However, you did add this gem:

[ QUOTE ]
In my opinion, this kind of strategy should work great against most TAGs, especially the multi-tabling bonus whores who really do not know what they're doing. They know checkraises mean strong hands, so they fold and move on. You might even be able to pull it off multiple times before they catch on.


[/ QUOTE ]

I hope people don't skip that paragraph. Thanks for the post, and happy new years.
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  #4  
Old 12-30-2005, 09:06 AM
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Default Re: Punishing Autopilot TAGs

This exact play was something Eric keyed me in on when I had him look at my play, and I've been very successful with it.

Another point on this. "I know that you know that I know...". Once you get comfortable using this, you can recognize it and turn it around on someone making the move on you. Last night sitting live, I saw the table bully do it to the guy on my immediate left on a steal raise from the button. The next time around, I steal-raised from CO. Bully calls the raise, checks the flop, I bet, he pops, I reraise knowing exactly what he's doing. He lays it down. My cards were 97s and had completely missed the flop ;-)
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  #5  
Old 12-30-2005, 10:44 AM
QTip QTip is offline
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Default Re: Punishing Autopilot TAGs

Pop it in your digest Jake.
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  #6  
Old 12-30-2005, 11:18 AM
thejameser thejameser is offline
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Default Re: Punishing Autopilot TAGs

i have thought about this for a while. it became really obvious to me when the party split happend that this was a highly exploitable tendency of multitablers and learning players with weakish characteristics. some of the most profitable sessions i had prior to moving back to party were those that i rarely wtsd by mixing up lines with c/r's, donkbets, and bluff 3 bets pushing players off of what i KNEW were better hands. this is when the "fold the 3bet" tendency became a major object of exploitation for me. especially in HU and blind steal scenarios. like clockwork TAG would call my flop bet, c/r me on the turn and fold to my 3 bet. anyway, i don't talk about it alot because i get the impression a decent % of them are 2p2ers that just aren't observing enough to realize what i am doing.
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  #7  
Old 12-30-2005, 12:01 PM
Harv72b Harv72b is offline
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Default Re: Punishing Autopilot TAGs

Take it a step further:

Hero opens from MP2 with J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. An uncreative, ABC-type TAG multitabler (800 hand sample) 3-bets from the CO. Folded around to Hero who calls.

Flop: 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

There are 7.33 SBs in the pot. What's our course of action?
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  #8  
Old 12-30-2005, 12:34 PM
car ramrod car ramrod is offline
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Default Re: Punishing Autopilot TAGs

I am mainly a 6max player and I am just getting back into full ring. Anyway, I see this play almost every time I raise pf, and it gets hu with a blind. The tag blind will check raise me on almost any low flop that he thinks didn't hit me.

And, if I am the blind, and I check raise the pfr, (again, this is 6max) I get 3bet with ui overs a large portion of the time.

So, I guess my question is, what limits are you talking about here? Obvioulsy you are talking about full ring, and I think the aggression level is less then it is at 6max. But even in full ring, at 2/4 or higher, are these tags not aware that a flop check raise hu, is not usually a strong hand? Do you see a lot of calling your check/raise and then folding ui on the turn?

I am not disagreeing, just asking, b/c like I said I haven't played full in a while. What limits are you mainly refering to?
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  #9  
Old 12-30-2005, 01:09 PM
Nick Royale Nick Royale is offline
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Default Re: Punishing Autopilot TAGs

[ QUOTE ]
Take it a step further:

Hero opens from MP2 with J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. An uncreative, ABC-type TAG multitabler (800 hand sample) 3-bets from the CO. Folded around to Hero who calls.

Flop: 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

There are 7.33 SBs in the pot. What's our course of action?

[/ QUOTE ]
I'm an uncreative, ABC-type TAG multitabler.

My lines against a seemingly well playing TAG:
Hands I'll bet/call: AK-AQ/AA (27 combos)
Hands I'll bet/fold: JJ-99 (12 combos)
Hands I'll check (planning to go to a sd no matter what): KK-QQ (12 combos)

It doesn't take a rocketscientist to figure out you'll make an immediate profit by check/raising me everytime by just looking at these combos. I guess I'm counting on TAGs not beeing tricky enough to check/raise me often with air. But don't try this against me Harv, I know your nick [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]
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  #10  
Old 12-30-2005, 01:12 PM
milesdyson milesdyson is offline
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Default Re: Punishing Autopilot TAGs

this is exactly the type of thread lurkers lurk for - multitabling TAGs telling everyone how to exploit multitabling TAGs.
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