Blind war w/ a 2+2'er

[TomBrooks]

I don't care for your river bet - I would have rather check/called. SB might not have a nine, but he could have an overpair. There is a very decent chance your ahead here, but not enough of one to risk getting raised, as I feel you want to get to showdown here, but I'd rather not get raised on the way. Your hand is a little too good to fold.

[JerseyTom]

I check-call the river and expect to lose this time. If he's truly "fed-up", he's probably overplaying a hand you beat at least 10% of the time so you need to show down. Calling his river raise is tough - I think bet/call often wastes a BB here (just to get shown TT+).

As others have said, if he has TT+, I like the way he played it; if he has whiffed overs, he's a retard.


Tom

[beachbum]

It looks like most of the responses disagree with my river value bet.

Putting him on a thorough hand range (that I'm ahead of) BEFORE the river:

Made hands: A8o/s, K8o/s, Q8s, T8s, 98s, 77, 66, possibly 44
Overs: AK, AQ, AJ, AT, A9, KQ, KJ, KT, K9s, QJ, QT, JT

There's not a 100% chance he has each of these hands. I think for hands that are suited in [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]'s or have one [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] that likelihood goes up.

The way the hand played out, not betting the river felt weak. I'm really trying to focus on better river play. Yes I could've c/c'd to induce a bluff, but I felt there was too great of a chance he uses his position and checks behind an unmade hand UI. Also, bet/folding is not an option.

FWIW, he had 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] and spewed IMO.

[KDawgCometh]

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FWIW, he had 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] and spewed IMO.

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i think only the river is a spew by him. you had said that you will CR the flop with any piece of it, so the overcard is the only card that he has to worry about

[StellarWind]

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FWIW, he had 7 7 and spewed IMO.

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This worked out well for you but also illustrates the problems with the river bet.

Your river bet did not pass the sniff test. He was able to work out that your line of play probably represented a pair <= eights and not the nine that it superficially appeared to be. Now he has to decide how likely you are to have the eight as opposed to an even smaller pair. Sadly for him he misjudged (this time) although maybe his play is actually correct. I'm not really certain about your actual hand range so perhaps from his perspective the river raise is a favorite.

Anyway it's pretty clear from his raise that all you had to do was checkcall to collect a safe bet from almost every hand that would call your river bet. If his hand is slightly worse your bet gains nothing while if his hand is slightly better you lose a bet.

[xwillience]

i dont get your river bet... i think this would normally (ive already seen the results) be a situation of getting called onyl by a better hand.

[MicroBob]

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there was too great of a chance he uses his position and checks behind an unmade hand UI.

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This is exactly what I thought.
I was okay with your river bet and thought there was a reasonable chance he would call-down with something less than 8's. Letting him just check-through here feels weak to me too.
calling the raise on the river is indeed a toughie though...I would have thought he would just call with almost anything because of the fear of the 9. Obviously your bet looks a little weird to him...but there still has to be that consideration out there I would think.

[oreogod]

I think the easiest thing u can do that helps in these siutations a lot, is to keep control.

On the flop, Id either bet/3bet (which most of the time allows u to put in the last bet) or c/r then cap. Of course, if he then has the gusto to raise your turn bet with a worse hand, marginal, better hand...then u have a situation, in which u have to go with what u know. If he raises u on the turn, could be a free showdown/pressure play, in which if u call he should be checking a good amount of hands behind on the river. So say he does raise your turn and u know if u call his turn raise he will only ever bet hands on the river that have u crushed, then u can actually fold (unlikely to happen, but with some reads, u never know). If thats not the case u are probably stuck with a 2 bet desicion if u call the turn. Also, if a flush card hits, he could very well check behind, or u can bet it as a bluff (he might call u often though)

As it was played, flop is okay...Id probably give it another bet...turn is okay, hes almost always betting...river just c/c. He probably believes he is betting for value at that point, also u probably will not get a bet on a worse hand. KQ, A-high...maybe on a look up, or if he belives u have a busted draw. But you gotta remember, this guy is a value better, as are most 2+2ers...so with your action he may value bet both worse and best hands, while calling/raising your river bet with only the best.

[MicroBob]

very nice and thought-provoking post oreo. thanks for sharing your ideas.

[oreogod]

thanks, bob. This thread caught me into my 4th white russian (my gf makes good drinks). Im just happy that it appears to have come out in a readable and slightly (hopefully) sane manner.