Make this UGLY call?

[CieloAzor]

This hand's pretty interesting I think. Villain is fairly solid, but not particularly bold or imaginative.

Level XII: 200 Ante 500/1,000 Blinds (100 Minimum Chip)
Average Stack: 30,000 (10,000 starting chips)
Remaining Players: 5 (15 started)
Seat 3 : Sailor Moe starts with 60,900
Seat 5 : SuperFlop starts with 28,200
Seat 6 : coach1126 starts with 16,800
Seat 9 : CieloAzor starts with 31,100
Seat 10 : Shadowfax starts with 13,400
Seat 9 : CieloAzor has the dealer button
>>>DEALING HOLE CARDS<<<
CieloAzor dealt down Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
Sailor Moe posts the ante 200
SuperFlop posts the ante 200
coach1126 posts the ante 200
CieloAzor posts the ante 200
Shadowfax posts the ante 200
Shadowfax posts the small blind 500
Sailor Moe posts the big blind 1,000
SuperFlop raises 3,500 to 4,500
coach1126 folds
CieloAzor calls 4,500
Shadowfax calls 4,000
Sailor Moe calls 3,500
>>>DEALING FLOP<<< [ T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ]
Shadowfax bets 8,700 and is all-in
Sailor Moe folds
SuperFlop folds
CieloAzor calls 8,700

-------------------------

If there were anybody still to act behind me, it's tough to even consider a call here. But with 27700 already in the pot and a price of 8700 to call, I'm being laid about 3.2 to 1 on this call and need to win about 24% of the time to break even.

If villain has a T, I'm usually an 85/15 dog. (KT has me almost dead, 98/2)

If villain has something like KJ, I'm a 67/33 dog.

If villain has an underpair to the board (can be counterfeited), it's almost a coinflip (54.5/45.5).

Of course I didn't know the exact math of the situation at the table, but I had a general idea of what kind of shape I could be in and the odds were very comely. I didn't feel villain needed a T to make this push, but I didn't think I could have possibly had the best hand, unless villain had KQ exactly.

Anybody like/hate the call?

I like the odds...My read is hes holding something like AJ..wouldnt make much sense to push with K10 right off the bat, might as well let someone else do the betting for you.

Could be holding something like QQ, but its unlikely since you hold the queen of diamonds. He could also be pushing an OESD but I think thats less likely than either of the top two.

Against AJ at this point you're about 30%, so you're definitely getting the odds to call.

Unless you think the villain has gotten you beat terribly, then call him down.

I think he rarely has the 10 there. You are getting a good price, I think its a call.

[locutus2002]

Hero folds.

Straightforward Villain isn't going to bet into 3 players without: AJ,AK,QQ-AA.

1/2 the time ur 25%
1/2 the time ur 15%

It's very likely that villain and other players had many of your outs which means these odds are optimistic.

Your stack is still very workable with 25XBB; Not so great w/ 16XBB.

I'd let it go.

[CieloAzor]

Thanks for the replies, guys.

Results:

Villain flips up 88. Folding on this occasion would've been a fairly costly mistake. Of course, Villain doesn't understand this call at all and goes semi-ballistic when Hero spikes an A on the turn. Hero has made an enemy for life.

[yvesaint]

definitely doesnt look like a T (why push into 3 players, especially a big pfr when you only have like 8.7k left?)

even if he flips over AJ you have odds to call

and plus this is random stuff like 22-99, any J, KQ, etc. a lot of the time

easy call when it's just you and HU

question now is, how bad/good is villains play? i think in his spot im either folding or pushing pre-flop

[tedtodd]

Looked like a Stop'n'Go- he made his mind up PF- that was the only way he was going to win with 88. There was no going back- but without a A,K, or Q dropping on the flop- he thought he was good. Did he pause then call? Or instacall???

Nice play- Though I'm not so sure I would have called with peeps behind me.