battle of blinds on bubble

[schwza]

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is it -ev for any calling range of opp? or only for certain calling ranges?

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i promise it's not -EV for the range of "villain folds everything."

[Nicholasp27]

well, yeah

but i'm more interested in which ranges...cause he said 'slightly negative' which makes me think most ranges may be slightly positive

[rvg72]

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I fold this. You can't put enough pressure on the BB to make him fold a hand like A9, KQ, or 77. Plus UTG is going to be very desperate very soon.

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I ran this through Eastbay's program using those calling ranges (which I think Durron was right on the money about) and it shows this as being a clear push at +0.9%. 32o is also a push with a +0.5% so according to ICM this is an any 2 push.

rvg

[rvg72]

I fold this. You can't put enough pressure on the BB to make him fold a hand like A9, KQ, or 77. Plus UTG is going to be very desperate very soon.

I ran this through Eastbay's program using those calling ranges (which I think Durron was right on the money about) and it shows this as being a clear push at +0.9%. 32o is also a push with a +0.5% so according to ICM this is an any 2 push.

rvg

[durron597]

Those were examples. The BB probably calls with A7, KT, QJ, 55... that's getting towards the range. I'm not exactly sure.

[grandgnu]

I push, please read HOH-2 and return when you are ready. Your software will not save you. Folding any Ace in the small blind at that point instead of pushing is a mistake unless the UTG player only had enough to be all-in on the next hand. You have twice as many chips as he does, but that can change very quickly. I've seen many short-stacks come back to win from the bubble.

[durron597]

[ QUOTE ]
I push, please read HOH-2 and return when you are ready. Your software will not save you.


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Prick. That aside:

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Folding any Ace in the small blind at that point instead of pushing is a mistake unless the UTG player only had enough to be all-in on the next hand. You have twice as many chips as he does, but that can change very quickly. I've seen many short-stacks come back to win from the bubble.

[/ QUOTE ]

Did you even pay attention to stack sizes at all? Nearly the entire BB's calling range dominates you, and your M here is over 6. You don't need this pot. There will be better spots. I would rather raise UTG with the 2nd place stack in the BB with A6o than here.

[Scuba Chuck]

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I fold this. You can't put enough pressure on the BB to make him fold a hand like A9, KQ, or 77. Plus UTG is going to be very desperate very soon.

Your stack size is right around the point where UTG folds most hands you are a 60/40 against and calls with hands where are you are 70/30 or worse. And the 300 chips in the pot aren't worth it IMO.

Edit: if UTG's stack and Button's stack were both 1500 or so this is a push. Also if BB's stack and Button's stack were reversed this is a push.

Edit2: if you had 200 fewer chips also it is a push. I think all the details are exactly unfavorable enough to make it not a push.

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Durron, very good analysis. You could also add in that if the blinds were bigger, say 150/300, this is also now +EV. This is just another example of how complex this game can be, so many minor variations, and it changes the whole landscape.

[rvg72]

I'd push that every time against any reasonably tight BB.

I would bet his calling range is extremely tight here - high pocket pairs or A with good kicker... I think you take those 300 chips over 95% of the time against this guy making this an any 2 push.

But then again some well respected SNG'ers have said fold on this thread so don't take my word for it...

rvg

[schwza]

as a seperate question, what would your calling range be? assume i've been average in terms of aggressiveness.

i'd be calling hands like 77, A8, KQ, maybe more. villain is deep enough that he can call, lose, and still be comfortably ahead of the shorty.