$55 - A3 in the SB with 10x BB....

[octaveshift]

I have played 3 hands up until now, none of which have been shown down. What do you do here?

***** Hand History for Game 2513637884 *****
NL Texas Hold'em $50 Buy-in + $5 Entry Fee Trny:14727434 Level:4 Blinds(50/100) - Wednesday, August 10, 21:51:25 EDT 2005
Table Table 14534 (Real Money)
Seat 10 is the button
Total number of players : 6
Seat 2: tightizrite ( $985 )
Seat 8: Nicholas1975 ( $1510 )
Seat 9: SevnFigures ( $840 )
Seat 10: Chimp_Leader ( $3765 )
Seat 1: xyrophobic ( $1050 )
Seat 5: RUPPERTJONES ( $1850 )
Trny:14727434 Level:4
Blinds(50/100)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to xyrophobic [ 3h As ]
RUPPERTJONES folds.
Nicholas1975 folds.
SevnFigures folds.
Chimp_Leader folds.
xyrophobic....?

[lastchance]

I don't see how this is not a push.

[octaveshift]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't see how this is not a push.

[/ QUOTE ]

Welllllllllll, do I really want to set a "I am going to push into your BB" precedent with 10X BB?

[Shillx]

With 6 players left, you can almost push according to the KS numbers (though A3o isn't one of these hands oftentimes since it doesn't fare well against a random hand). On the bubble, you might not be able to squeeze any EV out of this hand face up unless you have 10 SB or less. You don't have to worry about that here. So if A3o is worth 50 SB in ring game or MTT, you can push face up if you have about 40 SB or less. This is a no brainer push even if you flipped your hand over.

Brad

[GimmeDaWatch]

[ QUOTE ]
With 6 players left, you can almost push according to the KS numbers (though A3o isn't one of these hands oftentimes since it doesn't fare well against a random hand). On the bubble, you might not be able to squeeze any EV out of this hand face up unless you have 10 SB or less. You don't have to worry about that here. So if A3o is worth 50 SB in ring game or MTT, you can push face up if you have about 40 SB or less. This is a no brainer push even if you flipped your hand over.

Brad

[/ QUOTE ]

Is it really that much of a no-brainer, anyone got the nubmers on this? You're risking your whole stack to win 150 and if you get called you're dominated, its that simple.
If mathematically it is a push, I gottta think its pretty close.

[octaveshift]

[ QUOTE ]

If mathematically it is a push, I gottta think its pretty close.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's sorta close mathematically, but I think there might be some value in not sending the "I am going to steal, so loosen your calling standards" message this early in the tourney.

I could be wrong. I probably am.

[Shillx]

We have 20 SB behind. The hand is worth 49 SB in a cash game situation. Here is what this means...

Everyone folds to me in the SB and I turn my A3o face up for the BB to see. If either me or the BB have more then 49 SB in our stack(s), I can't move in here and make money. If either one of us do have less the 49 SB, I make more $$ by moving in then by folding.

The problem in an SNG is that you oftentimes need to be more then a 50/50 shot to play a pot. Here are some bubble #'s with A3o.

If you are pushing into a BB with...

3x stack as you (this assumes that everyone on the bubble has 3x what you have. So stacks of 3k/3k/3k/1k) - KS Value/2.5 is the max stack you can have
2x stack - KS/3
Even - KS/10
1/2 stack - KS/2.1
1/3 stack - ~ KS

Bubble play with hands like A2 and A3 are sketchy. Since they are only ~54% favorites against a random hand, the BB can simply call all-in dark and kill your EV. With even stacks on the bubble, you can't push face up with more then about 5 SB behind. If you have the whole table in bad shape (say 4k/1k/1k/1k) you can push A3o face from the SB with blinds as low as 25/50 [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]. (Run a sim if you want and have the BB call with 22+/A2+....it is + $.07 cents to push at a $55)

When it is 6 handed, you can push more freely. You can't push with 49 SB behind, but you can push with say 38 SB behind. Pushing with 20 SB is something you should be doing like clockwork.

Brad

Edit- Here are some ITM numbers from the SB. It makes no difference what your hand is here (on the bubble it makes a big difference). You can afford to push better hands more freely on the bubble since they can't take the "call any 2" approach against you. ITM though, all hands play the same since you don't have to worry about busting OOTM. Assume that you are the 1st stack size listed and the values are for +EV face up (namely it doesn't matter what the villian decides to call with, you have to make money).

(T6000,T2000,T2000) - Same as KS
(T5000,T2500,T2500) - KS/1.2
(Even stacks) - KS/1.8
(2000,4000,4000) - KS/1.4
(1000,3000,3000) - KS/1.37

You can play a lot looser ITM then on the bubble. The best time to push is when you have the entire table covered in a big way. The next best time is when you are short and you have to be somewhat careful when you have an avg. stack.

Brad

[octaveshift]

[ QUOTE ]
The hand is worth 49 SB in a cash game situation.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is the first time I have seen someone try to explain how KS hand rankings apply to a SNG situation.

I admit that I don't quite understand the explanation yet, but I thank you for taking the time to write it out.

[img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

I'll probably have a bunch of goofy questions for you shortly.

[jgunnip]

forgive me but what are these KS numbers you're talking about? Is there a post or article you could link me too?


As far as this hand goes, of course its a push, but I think the OP's inquiry into how pushes like these affect your FE later in the game is an interesting one. However, I assume (perhaps incorrectly but it makes sense) that as you go up in stakes, the number of opponents that will spite call you will decrease. Now I'm not saying the players have tighter calling standards, I don't know, but it would seem to me that you will run into more spite calls at the lower levels. Where as at the higher levels, you would presumably see some opponents make 'spite calls' that are actually more value calls since they are skillful enough to know certain situations are 'push any 2' and observant enough to notice which players also understand this and therefore their calls would be more for value than out of spite.

[octaveshift]

[ QUOTE ]
forgive me but what are these KS numbers you're talking about? Is there a post or article you could link me too?

[/ QUOTE ]

Good luck with this. I find it very hard to get my head around: http://archiveserver.twoplustwo.com/...772&Forum=,,All_Forums,,&Words=&Searchpage=1&Lim it=25&Main=382772&Search=true&where=&a mp;Name=5&daterange=&newerval=&newerty pe=&olderval=&oldertype=&bodyprev=#Pos t382772