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#61
09-27-2005, 02:08 PM
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Re: One other thing
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] So getting 13-1 PF do you call with any offsuit ace? [/ QUOTE ] I think a legitimate argument can be made for folding a kicker as high as a 10 given the offsuited nature; but comparing a Jack to "any card" when it's, you know, the 4th biggest card in the deck... [/ QUOTE ] So if it comes j23 your prepared to go to war on the flop? Goona cost you 3.5bb to find out that he has 2 kings. [/ QUOTE ] But if it comes J23 you also will be up against AK quite a bit, and even if you are up against QQ or KK you still have 5 outs. You're only in a bind against AA and JJ there. On the J23 flop you have 46% equity against AA-JJ and AK. 
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#62
09-27-2005, 02:24 PM
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Re: Im sure you all will hate this
This is a silly fold, 5 way pot for 1 more bb.
Reason for why this should not be a pure preflop decision, because most of us have appreciable post flop skills. You don't HAVE to pay off with a worse A, or middle pair or whatever the hell the case is. So much money in the pot and people are screaming fold, because there might be a better hand out there? So?
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#63
09-27-2005, 02:27 PM
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Re: One other thing
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] So getting 13-1 PF do you call with any offsuit ace? [/ QUOTE ] I think a legitimate argument can be made for folding a kicker as high as a 10 given the offsuited nature; but comparing a Jack to "any card" when it's, you know, the 4th biggest card in the deck... [/ QUOTE ] So if it comes j23 your prepared to go to war on the flop? Goona cost you 3.5bb to find out that he has 2 kings. [/ QUOTE ] But if it comes J23 you also will be up against AK quite a bit, and even if you are up against QQ or KK you still have 5 outs. You're only in a bind against AA and JJ there. On the J23 flop you have 46% equity against AA-JJ and AK. [/ QUOTE ] How about when he bets out on the flop though? that has to decrease your equity by 20% or so
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#64
09-27-2005, 02:31 PM
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Re: OK EVERYONE, LISTEN UP!!!!
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] in my 3rd post i believe i said that i had been at the table for 3 or 4 orbits and this player looked to be passive and weak. Therefore there is about a 1% chance he is a "good thinking player" and raising with 89s here. And who says "good thinking players" do that anyway. My poker insticts told me had a big hand. Take that for what its worth. If I am 97% sure that the worst hand he can have here is jj-ak which has been the discussion the whole time, thats where the argument comes in. Otherwise of course theres not an argument, we might have the best hand. [/ QUOTE ] First of all, i am not saying that all good thinking players raise suited connectors. I simply classified opponents into different catergories and attempted to show that it was right to play the hand in either cirumstance. I also pointed out that many players have a wider range than some people here have acknowledged. I understand you have read him as strong, but gernally i don't think 3-4 orbits is enough to put him on a 5 hand range when he raises preflop. If you read is that strong, use it to fold the turn after a jack high flop when he plays back at you. [/ QUOTE ] Theres no way you can fold a 5 outer on the turn after you raise the flop and say 1 person cold calls and he 3 bets. There will be 12.5 bb in the pot by the time he bets out on the turn. Can't fold a 5 outer. Then on the river when your getting 15 or 16-1 are you going to fold top pair? This whole post is about compounding mistakes out of posistion when you have a terrible terrible hand against a presumed Huge hand. Why give the guy action?
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#65
09-27-2005, 03:00 PM
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Re: OK EVERYONE, LISTEN UP!!!!
Yes i understand the post is about compounding mistakes. That said, it takes one HELL of a read to make folding preflop here the correct. IMO, it takes no more or a special read to fold the river with top pair getting 16-1 like you said. I could be wrong about comparing the two, but the point i feel strongly that they are similar, and since you seem skeptical about mucking the river for a bet, i think you should be more skeptical about mucking prelfop fo ra 1/2 bet.
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#66
09-27-2005, 04:10 PM
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Re: not really
"Quote:
justin, unless he has a made hand no decent player makes a continuation bet into a field this large. i think your 50% equity on a J high flop vs the sb is way off. 12 AK combos, 3AQs, 3 AA, 6 KK, 6 QQ, 3 JJ, even if you add TT here and it's 6, you are way less then 50% on a J high flop. as for the 55 -60% fav on a A high flop, you are a little high, and when you flop an A (1 in 6 times), and you are vs a bigger A or AA you lose a lot. plus you have a large field to contend with even if you hit an A and you are ahead of the sb. i think AJo is a clear fold here. but that is just my opinion. My stats came from poker stove. Check it out yourself if you don't believe me." ---------------------------------------------------- i played around with the stats and i still think you are in error. furthmore, i did a simulation (which is basically meaningless), with 5 players (not 6) seeing the flop. i chose not to put sb on a hand that dominated AJo. i used QQ for sb, the others were 77, T9s, and KJo (which AJo dominates). in this with 5 seeing the flop, the AJo wins about 18% of the time therefore, having a slightly negative expectation. and that is when he is not dominated. i still can't see a call here.
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#68
09-27-2005, 04:34 PM
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Re: One other thing
[ QUOTE ]
No, I thought I was clear that having a jack is far superior to lower kickers, including even a ten because it flops top pair more often and is much less vulnerable to overcards. [/ QUOTE ] This is correct. I'm not sure how we go from AJo to A6o in the same discussion - again, this rationale of K > J and K > 6, therefore, J = 6 is improper thinking. I think the line is between the J and the 10 in this spot: call with the Jack, fold with the 10. An argument can be made for calling with the 10 ... but I think that's the cut-off. Clearly, A9o is a fold. A10o is a closer fold, but I believe a fold regardless, especially considering that the PF raiser is right to your right. (And, regarding the other poster way up there somewhere in that mess, if you call much easier with 89o rather than AJo, that is naturally your right to do - but it definitely isn't EV in my book.) Barron Vangor Toth BarronVangorToth.com
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#69
09-27-2005, 04:47 PM
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IMO the biggest issue......
....here is whether or not we get paid more overall when we flop an A and win than when we flop one and lose. Sure there are other situations (flop come J22, KQT, AJ4, whatever), where we will make our hand and win, but also others when we lose. I don't have the answers. I just know that if an A flops and SB gives me action, I can't fold.
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#70
09-27-2005, 05:42 PM
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Re: Im sure you all will hate this
when he raises KK here, your doing him a tremedous favor by folding. You basically dont want to see AA, AK, AQ. How can you narrow his hand range this much. For all you know he has 99. To say that you will lose lots of money on flops where you are dominated or flop a jack to his over pair is ridiculous. Just play it less aggressive.
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