Pot-odds theory - AKs flops a big draw

Kyriefurro · #1 10-03-2005, 12:18 PM

Villain in this hand is an absolute maniac - 72/23/1.4 (river AF is 16.5!!!) who's been running over the table for a couple of hours now. He's very loose, and absurdly aggressive, betting and raising with complete garbage and going to showdown with any piece of the board. Lastly, he loves to bluff, and when he does he does it with absolutely nothing. He gets a charge out of seeing people fold out to him and either shows his hand or tells them (I always checked the HH to be sure he was telling the truth, and he was).

Relevant stacks:
Hero - 170.55
UTG - 436.67

Hero is BB w/ A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img],K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Preflop: UTG raises to $2, MP calls, CO folds, Button folds, SB calls, Hero raises to $9, UTG calls, MP folds, SB folds.

($22) Flop (2 players) : 4 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img],3 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img],7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
Hero bets $21, UTG raises to $42, Hero calls.
 Based on villains play, I'm fairly confident that all six of my AK outs are clean, plus my 9 flush outs give me a total of 15 outs. Villain's raise gives me 4-1 odds, which is more than enough to call 

($106) Turn: J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
Hero bets $50, UTG raises to $100, Hero calls
 Leading out on the turn is somewhat questionable. My thinking at the time was that if I checked to villain he was going to bet the pot (or more). If I lead out on the turn, there was a small chance he'd just call, and even if he raised, he'd only min-raise. So I had a chance at getting there for half price. I still have all 15 outs. I need 2.1-1 odds to call, I'm getting 5-1. 

($306) River: 2 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
Hero bets $19.55 (all-in). UTG calls
 River is a terrible card for me. At this point the only thing I beat is a bluff. However, as I mentioned before, villain loves to bluff, and the pot is giving me >15-1, which is much better than villain's bluffing frequency. 

I really really hated this hand. The emotional part of myself thinks I played this terribly. The logical part isn't so sure.

Flame me, please? [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

#2 10-03-2005, 12:24 PM

If you're betting the river, why not push the turn?

Tuben · #3 10-03-2005, 12:26 PM

Dont like this kind of hands myself.

I would play it in 2 ways agressive and go all in on the flop.

Or i would bet the flop and if called i would check the turn if ched to or call a bet that gives me right odds.

But here you dont have position so go all in or play pot odds. It is what i think.

Kyriefurro · #4 10-03-2005, 12:26 PM

Yeah, good point. I've actually been thinking that I should have raise or even pushed on the flop. I'm going to the river with this hand, against this villain. A raise early on like this might have gotten him to fold. After all, AA or KK is huge on a board like this.

As I played it, the only thing I could have had was a draw...and any pair beats it [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img].

amoeba · #5 10-03-2005, 12:30 PM

I 3 bet all in on the flop.

subzero · #6 10-03-2005, 12:37 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I 3 bet all in on the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]
Same here. I'm okay with him calling (with his trash) or folding.

Tuben · #7 10-03-2005, 12:42 PM

It was a fold i would be hoping for if i would go all in here.
Hate drawing [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] But if he calls you can beat evrything if you hit.

yvesaint · #8 10-03-2005, 01:00 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I 3 bet all in on the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]