K9s on the button - Page 3

#21 09-01-2005, 09:35 AM

I think the call on the flop is ok, the backdoor flush gives you just enough outs.

I like the raise on the turn if the purpose is to get a free showdown.

hicherbie · #22 09-01-2005, 09:38 AM

depends on how bad SB is. you are almost certainly behind on the flop and turn, but folding is out of the question. i would think that the chance of folding sb in this big pot is decent..i like it.

the flop is close, but you have just enough outs to cc.

peterchi · #23 09-01-2005, 09:41 AM

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This specific turn card is a perfect one to raise, because getting 3 bet isn't a disaster since I have those flush outs.

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Yeah, getting 3-bet isn't a disaster, but I would argue this from a different standpoint.

WIthout the flush outs, we could probably fold to the 3-bet against reasonable opponents. Whereas here, we are forced to call it.

This card does increase our hand strength, but it doesn't strengthen our hand RIGHT NOW. i.e. if we weren't ahead on the flop, we aren't ahead right now either. We just have more outs (albeit a ton of them, now).

If we get 3-bet, we have to call it, and then fold the river UI I guess? Whereas if we just call, we can call the river too, thus costing 2BB when we're behind, while the other line costs us 3.

Personally I'd prefer to 3-bet the flop, bet the turn, call a c/r and fold the river UI, or call a donkbet if no c/r, or take a free showdown if we get it. I think.

I dunno I suck at poker.

Aces McGee · #24 09-01-2005, 09:46 AM

peterchi

Remember that we're not heads up. We've got the SB to worry about, too.

-McGee

peterchi · #25 09-01-2005, 09:48 AM

[ QUOTE ]
peterchi

Remember that we're not heads up. We've got the SB to worry about, too.

-McGee

[/ QUOTE ]
Sure, I know. Which part of my line/argument seems to neglect him?

sean c · #26 09-01-2005, 09:53 AM

[ QUOTE ]
peterchi

Remember that we're not heads up. We've got the SB to worry about, too.

-McGee

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes and folding the SB is worth opening ourselves up to a three bet here. Another question what is our river play if we do not improve and get donked?

Nice post Aces.

Rico Suave · #27 09-01-2005, 09:58 AM

Aces:

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I considered all three options. Without the backdoor flush, this could very well be a fold. But I think I have too much hand to not continue here.

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I think continuing really hinges on how often we figure to be ahead in this spot...which admittedly doesn't have to be all that often in this size pot. And it is hard to determine this with no reads. If we are behind, we are likely behind in a very bad way with minimal outs ....certainly not enough to continue on, not closing the action, even getting 17:2.

[ QUOTE ]
The problem with raising the flop, though, is that I forfeit my opportunity to face the SB with a double big bet on the turn. If I raise the flop, I'm laying him 20:2, which isn't enough to get gutshots to fold. If I wait until the turn to raise, I can give him something like 13:2. That'll fold gutshots, and while I anticipate many will disagree, I think our (UTG+1 and mine) combined aggression is enough to get the SB to fold AK some portion of the time. That's a huge coup for me.

[/ QUOTE ]

So when you flat called the flop, were you planning on popping any reasonable turn (as long as the sb doesn't 3-bet the flop) and the picked up spade draw was a bonus?

--Rico

Aces McGee · #28 09-01-2005, 10:07 AM

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Which part of my line/argument seems to neglect him?

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, all of it, frankly. At no point do you seem concerned with trying to knock him out. A double bet on the flop isn't going to do it with 20 SB already in there, and a single bet on the turn won't, either.

-McGee

Aces McGee · #29 09-01-2005, 10:08 AM

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Another question what is our river play if we do not improve and get donked?

[/ QUOTE ]

It depends on the river card, of course, but I think a fold is in order, although I end up calling those bets a lot more than I'd like to.

-McGee

peterchi · #30 09-01-2005, 10:09 AM

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Yes and folding the SB is worth opening ourselves up to a three bet here.

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A friend and I debated this point last night. He argued that SB couldn't possibly be holding anything that it would benefit us for him to fold, except JT which isn't going anywhere ever. Other Kings aren't folding either, most likely.

I argued that it would be nice to fold out even hands like AQ or gutshots.

I ran some examples through a poker odds calculator, and it seems as though my friend was right. I couldn't find any hands where it would actually benefit us to have them fold.

Can someone support or refute this?