Questionable Turn raise

Rico Suave · #1 08-31-2005, 09:42 AM

CO is loose passive (40/5), calls too much postflop, but isn't completely moronic--in that he is capable of not going to showdown with little or nothing.

UTG has been loose aggressive preflop, 40/25% in the 4 or 5 orbits I have seen him. He has been 3-bet at least 3 times, maybe more, and each time he capped. The only time he capped and showed, he held A4o OTB, but that was a blind steal situation, so take that fwiw. He has won lots of hands without showing down, and will slow down when played back at, and is certainly capable of folding....so he is somewhat of a thinking LAG.

8 handed 5/10 table

UTG raised, I 3-bet from MP with A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], CO calls 3 cold, everyone folds to UTG who caps, and both CO and I call.

Flop: 3 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players 13sb)

UTG bets, I call, CO calls.

Turn: 2 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players--8BB)

UTG bets, I raise....

Bad spot?

Redd · #2 08-31-2005, 09:48 AM

I don't really like it. Do you expect to fold him off of an overpair/TP here? If you're ahead, he's got a good chance of having 3 outs. And he might 3-bet you either way.
edit: And if you were trying to get rid of CO, why not just raise the flop instead while it's cheaper?

Piiop · #3 08-31-2005, 10:10 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Do you expect to fold him off of an overpair/TP here? If you're ahead, he's got a good chance of having 3 outs. And he might 3-bet you either way.
edit: And if you were trying to get rid of CO, why not just raise the flop instead while it's cheaper?

[/ QUOTE ]

He's trying to force the CO out so he's headsup with LAGman who capped preflop with A4o earlier. A turn raise will put way more pressure on the CO to fold and the LAG will 3bet a lot less than had he raised the flop. Also, if he raises the flop he's in a sucky spot if the CO cold-calls.

I think I like it, but you may run into problems. There's a pretty good chance the CO isn't laying down a pair. How often do you think the LAG 3bets you here?

Rico Suave · #4 08-31-2005, 10:21 AM

Piiop:

[ QUOTE ]
How often do you think the LAG 3bets you here?

[/ QUOTE ]

Hard to say...but I had not seen him 3 bet a turn yet. Also, my image was pretty good, so I don't think he is 3-betting this turn litely.

--Rico

PTjvs · #5 08-31-2005, 10:28 AM

The problem here is that CO's cold call range is probably so large, we have no real idea if he has something he may lay down or not. I don't think he's laying down any pair here, and maybe even not any straight draw. If he folds however, I think this play is very +EV, I just don't know if the probability of getting a fold is big enough.

jvs

Sarge85 · #6 08-31-2005, 11:07 AM

It's no goot.

Looks like he has a small piece, (not a draw), and there is no way he's going to think that the two helped you.

He'll be confused on why you didn't raise the flop (especially if in the past you'd follow through with your PF raises with a lot of flop bets/raises)

River a Ace or King to win.

Sarge[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

chief444 · #7 08-31-2005, 11:59 AM

Well, you're probably in decent shape against UTG's range so folding isn't an option. You have CO behind you to consider. You seem to think a 3-bet means a big hand. So this seems OK to me.

Dagger78 · #8 08-31-2005, 12:49 PM

I like this play if you think there is a decent chance of the CO folding.

What's your plan if you're 3 bet?

Rico Suave · #9 08-31-2005, 01:51 PM

[ QUOTE ]
What's your plan if you're 3 bet?

[/ QUOTE ]

At the time I played the hand, I was thinking that the turn raise was the last $ I am putting into this pot unimproved. But getting 13 or 15:1 if I were 3-bet...I would probably have to call.

--Rico