Marginal Hand #3 Bad call here?

[Entity]

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I will also say that your preflop call is less sound if you routinely make calls like this on the turn. You seem to overvalue your outs frequently on the turn.


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Yeah, like I said at the beginning I realize this was probably a bad call on the turn. I made a snap judgement and decided to call. Like I said earlier, I play a lot of hands on 4 tables so I'm usually not going to figure out exact clean and dirty outs. If you're off by 1 out (which is a guesstimate anyways because you don't KNOW what the other player has) then I don't think that would be a "serious" leak--at least not at this level.

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If you can't make proper decisions 4-tabling, you should probably be playing less poker. The intent of playing .5/1 is to learn to play better poker, which involves thinking about some hands.

A quick guesstimate (should take a few seconds at most) should put your outs here at between 3 and 4, realistically no higher than 5 on average. You need 8.2:1 to call for a 5-outer so I'd fold here, not closing the action, with less than 5 outs on the whole.

Rob

[Catt]

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So I lucked out and my 8 outs were good afterall. Even after thinking about it for a while I believe I still call the turn. Seems like I have just enough outs to call with the implied odds added in.

I notice a lot of you guys don't add the implied odds to your calculations. I think that's a pretty big mistake. Especially on marginal flop calls.

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I KNEW I worded that poorly and someone would misunderstand. What I meant was my outs if an 8 hit were actually good (although there was no way to know that in advance).

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Hey grjr, I like some of the hands you post -- generates good discussion. I also like that you take debate and dissension with a pretty good attitude. That said . . .

I have no idea what you mean by counting "implied odds, especially on marginal flop calls." You have no T or 8 outs on your flop call. You basically have a gutshot and a BDFD. I really don't think you can count undecards as legitimate outs, facing this field, on this flop, with this pre-flop action. You may as well give a hand of 72o on this board some out value too, because it can runner-runner two pair.

I think your flop call is fine (as is pre-flop) -- even if there's an aggressive player to act behind you, getting 13-1 plus the implied odds if you spike a 9 makes this a comfortable call for me.

Once the T falls on the turn, your BDFD is gone, your 9 outs are significantly devalued, but you pick up 2 T outs and 3 8 outs, which also need to be discounted a bit given the risk on this Board -- I'd say you have at most 4.5 outs and I think more realistically you have ~3 to 3.5 outs.

And add to this that you really don't have any significant implied odds on the turn call -- even if you spike an 8 or a T, your hand is probably not strong enough to both bet/raise the others to collect a number of extra BBs and win the hand. It might, might be strong enough to win. Assume you collect 2 extra BBs on the river when you spike a T or an 8 -- a reasonable assumption I think, because (1) I don't think it likely you can call and get raised behind, (2) I don't think you raise, get a river CC and another call; or (3) get 3-bet with a hand that you beat. Add those 2 BBS (implied odds) to the turn, and you're getting 11.5 to 1 not closing the action. That is not quite enough to call -- even assuming a generous "out count" and a resonable turn / river action IMHO.

I think pf and flop are fine. I think the turn call wasn't.

[grjr]

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I have no idea what you mean by counting "implied odds, especially on marginal flop calls."

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I wasn't talking about this hand specifically when I said that. I'm talking about the people who have a gutshot draw to the nuts on the flop and say, "I have a 10.5:1 chance of hitting my nut straight but the pot is only offering me 9:1 so I can't call here".

That's what I'm talking about and I see it all the time here. Not from the old time math guys but from the "wannabe" math guys. I think the wannabes would improve more if the implied odds part was pointed out to them more.

[PokerProdigy]

I think you'd be correct to take a flop here, but honestly I don't really know. My guess is that it's a close decision (aka small + or - EV) either way.

[Catt]

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I wasn't talking about this hand specifically when I [referenced implied odds]. I'm talking about the people who have a gutshot draw to the nuts on the flop and say, "I have a 10.5:1 chance of hitting my nut straight but the pot is only offering me 9:1 so I can't call here".

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OK - I understand better - I was confused by the subject in this hand / thread. I will say I see references (implied [Ha!] or explicit) to implied odds often enough, but it certainly cannot hurt to specifically state in other posts that a call makes sense when considering implied odds.

[gasoltub]

call preflop.

[gasoltub]

I discount the gutshot to 3 outs and add 1.5 for the backdoor flush. Getting 13:1 on a 4.5 outer I call.

[AngelicPenguin]

When you say relative position, do you mean if you hit that you can force the field to call 2 most likely?

[gasoltub]

In my head this is a clear fold. Please tell me I'm right...

[gasoltub]

You are getting 11.5:1 so you need to win only once every 12.5 times and I think CO will flip over AA, KK, AQ more often than AK, QQ or JJ.
So I guess I call.
I'm not very afraid of MP3 c/r since the 8 is unlikely to have helped him.