OT: What's wrong with this BJ strategy?

#1 10-09-2005, 12:08 AM

I thought I'd give Party Poker BJ a try. Had a thought:

If you bet the min, say $1, if you win, you bet the min again, if you lose, you bet $3 next. If you lost, bet 7, if you lost bet 15. Then stop at 15 if you lose and bet $1 again. I figure you have more than a 50% chance of losing, but let's just say 50%. 0.50^4=0.0625 So the expected value of an average four hand series is 4*0.9375 - 26*0.0625 right? Isn't that +EV?

raptor517 · #2 10-09-2005, 12:10 AM

you will not win 50% of hands. it will be much lower than that. thats the trouble. holla

A_Junglen · #3 10-09-2005, 12:10 AM

Referred to as Negative regression

#4 10-09-2005, 12:12 AM

Man that must mean I was on a crazy hot streak, I turned $80 into over $1000, then lost it all cuz I got greedy and probability got even. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

fluorescenthippo · #5 10-09-2005, 12:15 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I thought I'd give Party Poker BJ a try. Had a thought:

If you bet the min, say $1, if you win, you bet the min again, if you lose, you bet $3 next. If you lost, bet 7, if you lost bet 15. Then stop at 15 if you lose and bet $1 again. I figure you have more than a 50% chance of losing, but let's just say 50%. 0.50^4=0.0625 So the expected value of an average four hand series is 4*0.9375 - 26*0.0625 right? Isn't that +EV?

[/ QUOTE ]

no