PP15: i fold a flush draw

TStoneMBD · #1 09-10-2005, 09:22 PM

bunch of people in #sstakes couldnt agree on the fold, so i thought id post it here.

Party Poker 15/30 Hold'em (9 handed) pokerhand.org hand converter

Preflop: Hero is Button with 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. CO posts a blind of $15.
3 folds, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, CO (poster) checks, Hero calls, SB completes, BB raises, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, CO calls, Hero calls, SB calls.

Flop: (12 SB) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (6 players)
SB checks, BB bets, MP2 raises, MP3 folds, CO 3-bets, Hero folds

neuroman · #2 09-10-2005, 09:28 PM

I think that's a safe fold. You're looking at the prospect of sinking a lot of bets into a pot when there's a very good chance you're drawing dead.

gharp · #3 09-10-2005, 09:44 PM

I've never played 15/30, but this looks like a pretty clear call to me. Can you be that sure you're up against a bigger flush draw? You're getting 6:1 immediate odds, and the worst case scenario to me looks like BB folds and CO caps (21:4 -> ~5:1).

I think calling > capping > folding.

hobbsmann · #4 09-10-2005, 10:07 PM

good fold.

krishanleong · #5 09-10-2005, 10:38 PM

I call. It's being played like made hands, not like a flush draw.

Krishan

kurosh · #6 09-10-2005, 10:40 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I call. It's being played like made hands, not like a flush draw.

Krishan

[/ QUOTE ]I agree.

Ryan11 · #7 09-10-2005, 11:01 PM

Easy fold there IMO

baronzeus · #8 09-10-2005, 11:13 PM

i told you while you after you played the hand that its a fairly easy call for me since im flush-dominated so rarely.

we should consider capping too.

jason_t · #9 09-10-2005, 11:17 PM

[ QUOTE ]
i told you while you after you played the hand that its a fairly easy call for me since im flush-dominated so rarely.

[/ QUOTE ]

Based on raw probabilities you aren't, but after doing some Bayesian analysis during this hand, you might be this time.

hobbsmann · #10 09-10-2005, 11:35 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i told you while you after you played the hand that its a fairly easy call for me since im flush-dominated so rarely.

[/ QUOTE ]

Based on raw probabilities you aren't, but after doing some Bayesian analysis during this hand, you might be this time.

[/ QUOTE ]

How often can somebody do Bayesian analysis in the course of a hand? [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]