Ranging Far and Wide

[MLG]

Late first hour of the saturday Stars 320. I have a hand in LP with the blinds at 50/100. UTG raises to 200, one call, I call with 9k behind and both blinds come along. Flop comes K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]10 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]10 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. Checks to me and I bet 700. Only the BB, who started the hand with 7300 calls. Turn is the ever so interesting 2 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. BB bets 1500.

Point 1: Do some hand reading. Put BB on a range. Give me what my folding, calling, and raising ranges should be.



I called. River is the brick like 7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. BB checks. Point 2. What hands that I called the turn with should I check behind, and which ones should I bet.


Edit: I should also add that I had played a final table with the villain in the hand several days earlier. I was the second biggest stack and he was the biggest stack. I was quite aggresive at the table (surprise surprise) and I'm fairly sure this would be on his mind.

[ansky451]

BB range on the turn lead: KQo KJo K9o, all with the second card being a spade, or random tens, T9 T8 T7 etc (with or without the spade) Your folding range should be KQ and worse, unless you know the BB to be capable of some ballsy bluffs. Calling range is trips, with any kicker, and even if you have AT with ace of spades, I'd still opt for a call. Raising range in my opinion is only a flush/ or a boat.

River: I'm value betting trips here for sure, as I still think any king will make a crying call. Anything better than trips I also bet obviously, and I'm checking behind anything worse than trips.

I don't think I played it very well.

Preflop:
- UTG min. raise, three cold calls plus the blinds; tells me it is doubtful anyone but UTG has a big pair as they would not want to play multi-way and would likely reraise.
- Everyone is likely to be on big card draws or middle pairs
- Total pot 1000

Flop:
- you bet 700 and get called by BB only.
- The flop missed UTG and two cold callers so they fold. Tells me spades are live but straight draws are probably unlikely. I’m assuming that UTG and/or the two cold callers folded at least one or two Aces, Queens and Jacks but probably not spades.
- Betting 700 into a 1000 pot, you have to have a decent piece of the pot or a big draw. You wouldn’t mind winning it there, but you maybe wouldn’t mind a caller either. Maybe AsKx, KxQs or AsQs or an outside chance of QsJs. Possible that you have JJ, but you would have probably reraised preflop.
- In my limited experience, a flop cold call like this usually indicates a pretty strong hand. The opponent knows full well that any of the 3 other players could be check-raising, yet he cold calls. Hmmmmm.
- I put the opponent on some kind of Ten that is good enough to play 5-handed with all limpers preflop. Maybe JT with or without a spade, or some other fair to midland Ten.

Turn:
- pot is 2400, opponent bets 1500, offering you about 8:3, just enough to make you make a tough call if still needing a spade.
- Opponent is vulnerable to the flush draw if he indeed does have a Ten.
- You call. I don’t think you make this call with an AK, unless you have the Ace of spades. Further, I don’t think you make this call with a made flush. You would surely reraise because you are vulnerable to the full house draw. To make this call, you need the implied odds from being able to extract a bet on the river if you flush.

River:
- pot is 5400 and opponent checks
- Opponent likely has unimproved set of Tens, but has boated if he possibly played something like T7, but I think that is unlikely
- Whether to bet the turn depends primarily on the likelihood that your opponent would check-raise with a boat against your possible flush, or fold 3-Tens against your flush or AK steal.
- From your edit I suspect that your opponent has a hand, and also was sick of getting beat up on the week before, and will likely call any bet you make or reraise if he has made a boat on the river. Therefore, I bet the flush and check the AK. However, if he has shown a history of being able to check raise the nuts on the river, then I also seriously consider checking the flush too.
- Bottom line is that I’m reading you for AsKx or KxQs and a check, probably the AsKx.

Just my own wrong opinion. I'm probably wrong because I'm still not good at reading hands and tend to get fixed on one or two hands early. Thanks for the opportunity to think about your hand. Even if I’m wrong (likely), it helps me to think about it.

[MLG]

[ QUOTE ]
Turn:
- pot is 2400, opponent bets 1500, offering you about 8:3, just enough to make you make a tough call if still needing a spade.
- Opponent is vulnerable to the flush draw if he indeed does have a Ten.
- You call. I don’t think you make this call with an AK, unless you have the Ace of spades. Further, I don’t think you make this call with a made flush. You would surely reraise because you are vulnerable to the full house draw. To make this call, you need the implied odds from being able to extract a bet on the river if you flush.


[/ QUOTE ]

So, your read on the turn is I should fold everything worse than trips on the turn, call with trips and raise a flush?

I think he said make the call with the Ace of spades, King as well.

Edit: Or that you would, I guess I'm confused on his intent too. Nevermind.

[ansky451]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Turn:
- pot is 2400, opponent bets 1500, offering you about 8:3, just enough to make you make a tough call if still needing a spade.
- Opponent is vulnerable to the flush draw if he indeed does have a Ten.
- You call. I don’t think you make this call with an AK, unless you have the Ace of spades. Further, I don’t think you make this call with a made flush. You would surely reraise because you are vulnerable to the full house draw. To make this call, you need the implied odds from being able to extract a bet on the river if you flush.


[/ QUOTE ]

So, your read on the turn is I should fold everything worse than trips on the turn, call with trips and raise a flush?

[/ QUOTE ]


I also said this. seems standard no?

[MLG]

Im not expressing an opinion one way or another yet. Just trying to clarify the position, I thought he was a little unclear with respect to what I should do, as opposed to what I did do.

[ QUOTE ]
So, your read on the turn is I should fold everything worse than trips on the turn, call with trips and raise a flush?

[/ QUOTE ]

No, if I read you right for AsKx and you think implied odds from a river bet will make it worth the turn call, then possibly you make that call. You also have the other two Kings for outs to the nut boat.

Also, I think you fold the straight draw if you have something like non-spade QJ, because some of your outs probably got folded with the UTG and MP hands.

I hadn't figured you for a Ten. So if you have one, then I'm all wet on that thought. Splash one! [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

I think you raise with the flush, because your opponent might think you are trying to represent a flush and steal from him, based upon prior experience. Also if he does have the Ten, then you want to make him pay for the right to draw out on you.

The way you replied, I think I'm probably way off .... but in for a penny ... in for a pound.

[MLG]

oh, I see. I'm not really asking you to put me on a hand, I'm not sure how that would be possible. More I'm asking what action I should take with each of the holdings I could have.

[ QUOTE ]
oh, I see. I'm not really asking you to put me on a hand, I'm not sure how that would be possible. More I'm asking what action I should take with each of the holdings I could have.

[/ QUOTE ]

Based upon the way the hand played out, I'm putting you on AsK, two pair with a busted flush draw.

Whether to bet the river or not, is all up to the chances that the opponent would fold his likely holding of 3 Tens.

Possibly the opponent also has a busted flush draw and a piece of the board, with something like KxQs or KxJs.

However, it is unlikely that you would want to risk betting into that.

On the river, I always go back to Professor Sklansky .... whether or not to value bet on the river comes down to the probability of winning the opponents bet when you are called.

There is also the option to bluff. However, you had already hinted that you pretty much ran roughshod over this opponent in your most recent encounter. So I doubt the opponent is going to lay down 3 Tens.

This is interesting. I can't wait for the final verdict.