Getting Value from Aces

[stevepa]

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raising is a mistake if he is going to fold.

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I agree in general because he may lose his stack with top pair. However, if he has a pocket pair and will only continue if he hits a set, then raising is correct even if he will fold. If you call, 7.5/8.5 times you win 480 chips. The other 1/8.5 times, you lose your stack or close to it. 7.5/8.5 *480 - 1.5/8.5 * 5000 = -460 chips. i.e. You lose 460 chips by just calling if he has a pocket pair. I approximated some numbers but the conclusion is still valid.

Steve

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[ QUOTE ]
raising is a mistake if he is going to fold.

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I agree in general because he may lose his stack with top pair. However, if he has a pocket pair and will only continue if he hits a set, then raising is correct even if he will fold. If you call, 7.5/8.5 times you win 480 chips. The other 1/8.5 times, you lose your stack or close to it. 7.5/8.5 *480 - 1.5/8.5 * 5000 = -460 chips. i.e. You lose 460 chips by just calling if he has a pocket pair. I approximated some numbers but the conclusion is still valid.

Steve

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Well put, Steve. This is in addition to the fact that raising is also the correct way to ensure we get Villain's stack when he hits with a number of his other possible holdings.

[stevepa]

Quick question for you Foucault. We agree we should raise if he has a pocket pair, but is that your default play? I would often just call because many people will commit their entire stack with a top pair or weak overpair type of hand.

Steve

your math is off. you have not included the main pot in your EV.

[stevepa]

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your math is off. you have not included the main pot in your EV.

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My math is from the last decision point. Calling is +EV when you look at the whole hand, raising has a higher EV by about 460 chips.

Steve

[adanthar]

I like how there have been 21 replies to this thread, most of them dealing with when villain has a pocket pair, and not one of them points out that when villain has KQs and a Q flops he is not 'bluffing' into the dry sidepot at all.

[stevepa]

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I like how there have been 21 replies to this thread, most of them dealing with when villain has a pocket pair, and not one of them points out that when villain has KQs and a Q flops he is not 'bluffing' into the dry sidepot at all.

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I'm not 100% sure of what you're saying, but I repeatedly said that most villains will commit their entire stack (or a lot of it) with a top pair type of hand. That's why I would usually just call the raise even though it would be correct to reraise if he had a pair.

Steve

If we think our opponent is decent, we have to consider the greater likelihood that he calls raises in position with hands where he knows where he is at (pocket pairs, suited connectors), than hands where he doesn't when he CALLS a raise (non AK/AQ broadways like KQ/KJ/QJ/KT/QT, where he could be crushed by AK/AQ).

Think about when you get someone's whole stack with top pair, good kicker...its when you think your opponent is on some sort of bluff/semibluff...which is far, far less likely when there is an all in player with a main pot...and you'll have to show your bluff and likely lose the main pot.

I think this is a clear situation of win a little or lose a lot with your AA. Your opponent has a hand where he knows where he's at the vast majority of the time, he has position, and he has a situation where you aren't likely to be bluffing if you bet. Ideal situation for him, crappy situation to you...don't price him into it. You know where you are at now...take position away from him.

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I like how there have been 21 replies to this thread, most of them dealing with when villain has a pocket pair, and not one of them points out that when villain has KQs and a Q flops he is not 'bluffing' into the dry sidepot at all.

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FMP:

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There are also hands like KQ that may find a fold if Hero smooth calls and then three-bets or check-raises a Q-high flop. If Hero juices the pot before the flop, KQ may well stick around anyway, and then will have a much harder time getting away from top pair.

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Are you saying smooth calling is best if Villain has KQ? Do you think KQ folds if Hero re-pops?

[adanthar]

Yeah, I suck at reading. But if he has KQ, of course a call is best and of course he'll fold to a reraise.